A good past year for Southeast, but federal government causing future worries, annual economic report finds

Tourism and mining thriving, seafood struggling, and most employers say lack of affordable housing remains a problem for workers, according to report

Pie charts show the percentages of jobs and earnings by industry in Southeast Alaska in 2024, according to an annual "Southeast Alaska By The Numbers" report presented Tuesday. (Rain Coast Data)

By Mark Sabbatini

Juneau Independent

Cruise tourism is expected to be at record highs this year and next, the mining industry is feeling golden, and there’s more state jobs in Southeast Alaska for the first time since 2012. But seafood and timber are struggling, the Trump administration is causing great uncertainty, and young families are leaving due to a lack of affordable housing.

Those were among the notable positives and negatives of this year’s "Southeast Alaska By the Numbers" economic report presented at the opening of Southeast Conference’s annual meeting in Sitka on Tuesday. Meilani Schijvens, owner of Rain Coast Data, told conference attendees the 14th annual study by her company features a cover photo of Hoonah’s Icy Strait Point shrouded in fog because prospects for the region are unclear.

"Our economic outlook is hazy due to the uncertainty regarding federal policies," she said. "And as we've said before, uncertainty is bad for business."

An April survey of Southeast business leaders found 60% were positive and 35% negative about the current business climate, but 23% felt better and 22% worse about the future, Schijvens said.

Her report also notes 4% of respondents expect positive impacts from Trump administration actions such as "tariffs, executive orders, regulatory or staffing shifts." A total of 24% expect impacts that are moderately negative, 23% very negative, 30% state they create uncertainty and 19% expect no impact.

Among the many contrasting numbers in the report presented Tuesday is there were 701 more jobs, yet 576 fewer people in Southeast Alaska in 2024 compared to 2023. Schijvens said the population shifts reflect demographics in the region that are "becoming the most important thing to talk about."

"Ten years ago in 2015 we were basically at peak jobs in Southeast Alaska," she said. "We are almost there (now). We are at 400 jobs away from being at peak jobs. However, just in the last 10 years we've lost 2,200 kids from our region, we've lost 5,500 people of prime workforce age and we've added 400 seniors as people are aging into their older years. And so we have to continue to focus on how to grow our workforce and grow our own when we look at how this is being impacted by community. Southeast Alaska has lost 15% of its workforce-age population in the last 10 years."

A chart shows employment and wages in Southeast Alaska communities in 2023 and 2024. (Rain Coast Data)

Tourism remains the largest private employer in Southeast with 19% of the region’s 45,722 jobs in 2024, but those workers only earned 13% of the $2.9 billion total employee earnings paid out during the year, according to the report.

"It's been the largest job provider for a while now," Schijvens said.

Schijvens said she is predicting a record 1.74 million cruise ship passengers in Southeast Alaska this year and the same number next year. But that won’t be the case in Juneau since a voluntary agreement between the city of Juneau and major cruise lines is set to take effect imposing a cap of 16,000 passengers daily and 12,000 on Saturdays.

"Due to these changes, not all cruise ships will stop in Juneau in 2026, which has historically been the norm," the report notes. "Royal Caribbean will be moving several port calls to Ketchikan."

Local, state and federal government jobs combined were 26% of the region’s jobs in 2024 — with federal employment accounting for 5% of jobs and 7% of wages. Tribal government employment and earnings each were 3%.

Among the most notable changes in government employment is an increase of 91 state jobs in Southeast in 2024 compared to 2023, Schijvens said.

"Between 2012 and 2023 we lost 1,300 state jobs, but we added 91 back (last year) and we're going to keep adding them back," she said.

Healthcare is overlooked by many people as the region’s third-largest employer — and largest statewide — and is expected to remain stable in terms of employment, Schijvens said. However, a major uncertainty is Medicaid funding cuts signed by President Donald Trump and whether they’ll be mitigated to an extent by some increases to rural healthcare funds.

"Based on (Congressional Budget Office) analysis we anticipate that 2,700 residents of Southeast Alaska could become uninsured, and there's uncertainty how the rural health funding will mitigate that increase," she said.

The seafood industry suffered another tough year due to low prices, Schijvens said. She said the industry accounted for 7% of the region's jobs and wages in 2024 — reflecting a 4% drop in jobs, 13% drop in wages and 19% drop in companies’ gross earnings compared to 2023.

"Just two years ago, in 2022, it was our number-one wage provider across Southeast Alaska," she said. "So there is volatility there. We can have a tough year in seafood, and we can bounce back. "

Mining is an industry feeling particularly optimistic, representing 5% of the region’s jobs last year compared to 2% in 2023, Schijvens said. Trump has issued executive orders seeking to maximize resource extraction from Alaska, and Schijvens noted prices of gold and other metals have risen sharply during the past year.

"This is a sector that has doubled in terms of size over the last dozen years or so," Schijvens said.

But while Trump’s executive orders also apply to the timber industry — and the administration is proposing to repeal the Roadless Rule for the Tongass National Forest and other areas — people in that sector had the most pessimistic responses in the April business climate survey, according to Schijvens.

Another industry of concern is construction since "I'm very concerned about tariffs raising the cost of construction materials," she said.

"Construction is already extremely expensive in our area and a lack of contractor confidence in pricing stability is going to raise bid pricing uncertainty, and uncertainty is bad for businesses," Schijvens said.

The annual report states 79% of business leaders say limited housing is causing people to leave or decine job offers. Among the communities seeing the largest drops in population were Yakutat at 6.3%, Hoonah at 6%, Craig at 4.8% and Metlakatla at 4.2% (those figures exclude small villages such as Port Protection, where five departing residents in 2024 resulted in a 14% drop).

"The largest 2023 to 2024 job gains percentage-wise included Skagway (+12%), Hoonah (+7%), and Sitka (+5%)," the report notes. "Three communities experienced job losses in 2024 compared to 2023: Yakutat, Angoon, and Hyder."

(Disclosure: Meilani Schijvens is a member of the Juneau Independent’s board of directors)

• Contact Mark Sabbatini at editor@juneauindependent.com or (907) 957-2306.