Consuming Juneau: Comparing grocery prices between stores and before/after tariffs

A couple of months ago a six-pack of muffins cost $9.99 at IGA Foodland. As of this week, a four-pack costs $10.49.

The increase from $1.67 per muffin to $2.62 is among the most notable differences in price hikes and shrinkflation throughout the downtown supermarket. Prepared deli meals and salads in the $10 range are $2 to $3 higher than two months ago, a jar of cherry preserves that was less than $5 is now $6.99, and frozen pasta meals are now 20 ounces instead of 24 ounces at the same $8.99 price tag.

Similar markups are occurring at other Juneau supermarkets — deli meals costing $8 at Safeway now cost $10, with other markups throughout the store. Similar markups are being reported throughout the U.S. for groceries and a wide range of other items, with wide-ranging (and inconsistent) tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump commonly presumed as the cause.

However, The New York Times reported June 13 that "data released this week showed that inflationary pressures remained more muted than expected at this stage." Yet, the newspaper noted, "economists are undeterred — for now."

"It’s not that tariffs aren’t affecting prices, they say," the Times reported. "It’s that this isn’t happening in a significant enough way just yet to show up in broad measures of inflation like the Consumer Price Index. They argue that the impact will be much more significant this summer."

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in May compared to April and 2.4% from May of 2024, according to a press release. A May 30 report by the market research company Circana states food and beverage prices were up 2.9% in May compared to a year ago, compared to a 1.7% price increase the prior year.

"Price increases this year have mostly stemmed from tight supplies of eggs, meat, coffee and cocoa, with coffee costs still going up even as prices for the other categories have stabilized," the website Industry Dive reported June 9, citing the Circana data.

A price comparison of 19 identical items was conducted June 19 by the Independent at Juneau’s four major supermarkets: Foodland IGA, Super Bear IGA, Fred Meyer and Safeway. In addition, a limited comparison of individual stores’ prices on June 19 compared to two to three months ago — before concerns about Trump’s fluctuating tariffs were prevalent among many consumers — was conducted.

Some results were unsurprising — most notably Fred Meyer having the lowest total cost of the 19 items at 137.02, compared to 143.81 at Foodland, $146.41 at Super Bear and $150.61 at Safeway. A survey of the same 19 items on July 1, 2022, resulted in totals of $112.42 at Fred Meyer, $124.55 at Foodland, $124.61 at Super Bear and $124.61 at Safeway.

Safeway’s distinct high-price tally this year is about 21% higher compared to mid-2022, while the CPI’s rise of less than 10% since then would result in a total price of $135.20 as of May 31.

Another notable difference is prices between Foodland and Super Bear — usually mostly identical since they are owned by the same parent company — varied considerably more than the 2022 survey.

And, yes, the price of eggs has gone down at all of the stores — and availability generally gone up — compared to recent months. The website Trading Economics reported Wednesday that U.S. egg prices are down 21.02% compared to a month ago, but still 4.95% higher than a year ago.

Spokespeople for the parent companies of Juneau’s four supermarkets did not respond to requests for comment Thursday.

• Contact Mark Sabbatini at editor@juneauindependent.com or (907) 957-2306.