New hazards to be analyzed in Alaska’s updated statewide threat assessment

The Ch`idriinjik Fire is seen burning on Aug. 1, 2023, about 15 miles southwest of the village of Venetie. An updated report about statewide threats, expected to be published by the Denali Commission by year's end, is adding wildfires, landslides and tsunamis to analysis of communities' vulnerabilities. The commission's 2019 report analyzed threats to communities from flooding, erosion and permafrost degradation. (Mike O’Brien/U.S. Bureau of Land Management Alaska Fire Service)

By Yereth Rosen

Alaska Beacon

The independent federal agency that provides Alaska with utilities, infrastructure and economic support is considering a number of new environmental hazards as it updates its statewide threat assessment.

In 2019, the Denali Commission published a detailed listing of climate change-related threats to communities around the state. The document, written for the commission by experts from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the University of Alaska Fairbanks, scored 187 communities according to the threats they faced from flooding, erosion, permafrost thaw or a combination of those impacts.

Now an updated report is in the works, with five more hazards added to the analysis: landslides, tsunamis, wildfires, earthquakes and volcanoes.

Experts working on the updated Denali Commission report outlined the project at a panel discussion held Wednesday at the Alaska Forum on the Environment, a weeklong conference underway in Anchorage.

“It didn’t make sense to just look at permafrost thaw, erosion and flooding when there are new hazards that our communities are facing,” said Courtney Brozovsky, a geographic information systems specialist with a consulting firm contracted by the Corps of Engineers.

The list of new hazards can be further expanded or defined. “We’re also talking about ways that we can incorporate some other additional hazards such as glacial outburst flooding, typhoon and drought,” Jessica Evans, an environmental planner with the same contractor, AECOM, told the gathering.

The Denali Commission, an independent federal agency established by Congress in 1998, coordinates investments in rural Alaska infrastructure, economic development and public health. The 2019 threat assessment has been used to help guide those investments. The commission continues to function, despite attempts by the Trump administration to abolish it.

Of the new hazards that are slated to be added to the updated assessment, three have connections or possible connections to climate change. Landslides of different types are occurring around Alaska and are tied to forces like glacial retreat, permafrost thaw and heavier precipitation events. A University of Alaska Fairbanks and National Weather Service study published in November correlates the increase in reported Alaska landslides to reported average temperature increases of 1.2-3.4 degrees Celsius — roughly 2-6 degrees Fahrenheit — and 3-27% increases in precipitation over the last 50 years across Alaska.

Landslides can cause dangerous localized tsunamis, as happened in Southeast Alaska’s Tracy Arm in August. And wildfire frequency and intensity have increased in Alaska as the climate has warmed.

Along with adding hazards to evaluate, other updates are intended to fill in past data gaps and to refine scoring methodology, Evans said.

The next step in the process is gathering public information, she said. After that, the team will try to figure out which hazards to aggregate, she said. The intended result is a more refined ranking system that focuses on relevant hazards for different geographic locations rather than grouping them all together, she said.

A draft report is expected in the summer, which will give more opportunities for public input. The final report is expected by the end of the year.

The Denali Commission has scheduled three events this month to gather public input on the project. The first is scheduled for Friday morning at the Atwood Building in downtown Anchorage. The second is scheduled for Feb. 10 at the Southeast Conference’s Mid-Session Summit. The third is scheduled for Feb. 26 at Zach’s Restaurant in Fairbanks.

• Yereth Rosen came to Alaska in 1987 to work for the Anchorage Times. She has been reporting on Alaska news ever since, covering stories ranging from oil spills to sled-dog races. She has reported for Reuters, for the Alaska Dispatch News, for Arctic Today and for other organizations. Alaska Beacon is part of States Newsroom, the nation’s largest state-focused nonprofit news organization.