Obamacare premiums likely to surge again next year

Preliminary rate filings show a proposed median hike of 14%, an analysis found

A man gets a checkup at a mobile health clinic in Parlier, Calif. A new report details preliminary Obamacare insurer premium rate increases. (Larry Valenzuela, CalMatters/CatchLight Local)

By Nada Hassanein

Stateline

Health insurance premiums are likely to grow more expensive next year for those who buy Marketplace plans, after increases this year.

Affordable Care Act Marketplace insurers are proposing a median premium increase of 14% for 2027, which would be a double-digit hike for the second year in a row, according to a new analysis of preliminary rate filings.

Insurers must submit their requested premium changes to state regulators by July 15, per Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services deadlines. Rates should be finalized later this summer.

Released Wednesday by the Peterson Center on Healthcare and healthcare research group KFF, the analysis looked at proposed rate changes among 77 Marketplace insurers across 16 states and Washington, D.C., that have made proposed rates publicly available. Those are Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont and Washington state.

The majority of insurers across those states are proposing a median ACA Marketplace premium increase between 10% and 20%, while 20 insurers are requesting premium increases of more than 20%. None included in the analysis proposed a decrease in premiums. 

Along with the expiration of enhanced premium subsidies, insurers are also citing rising healthcare costs and changes in federal regulations as reasons behind the increases.

At the end of last year, enhanced premium tax credits expired, leading to more out-of-pocket costs for some people enrolled in Marketplace plans. Premiums increased especially for those with incomes at 400% or more of the federal poverty level — or roughly $63,000 for a single person — who completely lost subsidies. That caused many healthier enrollees to leave the Marketplace, leaving behind enrollees who are more expensive to cover, according to KFF.

While the proposed increases are lower than last year’s median nationwide proposed rate change of 18% — the finalized change was 20% — it’s the second-highest requested change since 2018, according to the report.

ACA Marketplace enrollments have seen a steep drop, with 2.6 million fewer Americans on the rolls in February compared with the same time last year, The Associated Press reported.

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