State reports a strong run of Chilkat kings, some concern remains

A Chinook salmon is seen in an undated photo. (Ryan Hagerty/USFWS)

By Will Steinfeld

Chilkat Valley News

The Chilkat river king salmon run returned in high numbers to spawn this summer — the first season after the run was removed from the state-designated stock of concern list.

For much of the last decade and a half, king salmon, or chinook, arrived to spawning streams up the Chilkat in numbers below what state biologists considered sustainable.

From 2011 to 2018, the population came in below state sustainability benchmarks six out of seven years. In 2018, the run was estimated at just under 880 total large spawning fish, according to state data. That is far below averages in the 1990s and early 2000s, when the spawning population repeatedly came in well over 2,000 fish, sometimes as high as almost 7,000 fish, according to historical state data.  

From 2018 to 2024, the run was put on state-mandated harvest restrictions, which largely continued through this year, despite no longer being a stock of concern. That has resulted in lower harvest rates, which averaged over 20% before the stock of concern designation, Alaska Department of Fish and Game Chilkat chinook researcher Brian Elliott said this week. Since those restrictions have been in place, harvest has dropped to around 5%.

In other words, before the restrictions, roughly a fifth of the total Chilkat kings returning from the sea were being caught before reaching the river. Some of that catch was in the Lynn Canal, Elliott said, but much of it was also accounted for by sport and commercial fisheries along the run’s migratory path — areas like Cross Sound, Icy Strait, and the Chatham Strait. 

The drop in harvest rate is a development Elliott called a “big triumph” for state managers. The low harvest numbers have coincided with the run’s spawning population climbing back up to an estimated 3,821 large spawners this summer. Numbers that high have rarely been seen, exceeded most recently in 2009.

The return this year was above even the top end of the state’s goal range, set before the season at 3,500 large spawners. That’s supposed to indicate the top end of what the ecosystem can support, but Elliott said he isn’t worried about this year’s overshoot, calling the return “tremendous.” 

The run has now made escapement — the state sustainability goal — seven of the last eight years. But both Elliott and Fish and Game area management biologist Nicole Zeiser cautioned that it takes repeated years of strong returns for the run to really be “out of the woods,” as Zeiser put it. 

Neither had an estimate for when, and to what degree restrictions might loosen in the future, though both said they’re hoping for a return of a robust Chilkat king sport fishery. 

Even as the run posts stronger numbers, Elliot said one remaining concern is a trend of increasingly younger and smaller spawning fish. 

“Historically, we had five-year-olds (spawning fish), six-year-olds, and seven-year-olds in our large population,” Elliott said. Older fish are larger and more productive as spawners, able to excavate larger gravel, and produce more, and larger eggs. That means even with the same number of returning fish, a lower average age translates to fewer smolt. 

Besides the loss in productivity, a tightening in the overall age distribution also presents a risk. With the loss of older fish, there’s currently a high proportion of the spawning population that are the same age; according to Elliott, almost all of the spawning fish in the run are now five-year-olds. Losing diversity means one bad year can have a recurring impact down the line. 

“If you have two different age classes coming back, if one of them is weak, the neighboring one can make up for that,” Elliott said. “Whereas now, if one year is bad, you know in five years it’s going to be trouble.”

Research shows the same trend occurring in king salmon populations up and down the West Coast. To Elliott, that indicates that the root cause likely lies out toward the Bering Sea, with decreased survival rates in rearing grounds all those populations share. If the problem really is so broad, with causes still unknown, there’s little local management can do to reverse the trend, Elliott said, beyond potentially raising escapement goals in response to decreasing productivity.  

• This article originally appeared in the Chilkat Valley News.