Sustainable Alaska: Rapid response

A bioindicator of anomalous warm waters in Alaska. Market squid, Doryteuthis opalescens, attach their eggs on the seafloor only during warm years in Alaska. (Photo courtesy of Michael Navarro)

By Michael Navarro

Environmental change is making it harder to rely on the way we’ve traditionally responded to extreme events. What used to be rare — “storms of the century” or major disruptions — now feels increasingly common. Cold snaps, heat waves, floods, and landslides are happening more often and with greater intensity.

The problem is that much of our community infrastructure wasn’t built for this level of stress. In Southeast Alaska, we’ve already seen the effects: record snowfall in winter, landslides in spring and fall, and floods and marine heat waves in summer have all taken a toll.

After this past winter’s record snowfall in Juneau, my focus has shifted to what’s happening in the ocean. Warm water is already moving up the coast. A major El Niño event may be officially declared soon, but signs of warming are already here. NOAA buoys in SE Alaska show surface waters already reaching 9.6°C (49.3°F) in Ketchikan. At the same time, people in Ketchikan have reported seeing schools of market squid unusually early in the season—another signal that conditions are warmer than normal. Summer 2026 may be marked by warm temperatures with more southern species present.

If this trend continues, we’ll need to adapt quickly. In fisheries, one common idea is diversification — giving fishermen the ability to target different species when conditions change. In practice, that’s not easy. Permits are often limited, and switching fisheries can be difficult. Still, during warm years, fishermen do what they can. For example, last September’s warm water brought albacore tuna closer to the outer coast, creating new opportunities.

Other possibilities, like fishing for market squid or magister squid, have been discussed but aren’t yet approved. Market squid, Doryteuthis opalescens, fishing methods can unintentionally catch species like king salmon, and better gear is still needed to avoid that. For magister squid, we simply don’t have enough scientific information yet. My lab is working to fill some of those gaps so communities have better data to make decisions.

Warming waters also create challenges for mariculture. Many farms are located in sheltered bays, which can heat up quickly and, when winds are calm, create ideal conditions for harmful algal blooms. These blooms can threaten shellfish and other farmed species, making operations more vulnerable during warm years.

As these warm-water events become more common, both fishermen and mariculture growers will need more flexible options — not just to respond, but to stay viable. Any solutions need to work with the equipment and systems already in place and be ready to use quickly. While broader discussions at the community and state level are important, the pace of change is accelerating.

This was written on May 4, but conditions are shifting so fast that by the time it’s published, warm waters — and species like market squid — may already have reached Sitka or even Yakutat. That’s the reality we’re facing. Our response strategies will need to adapt towards moving just as quickly, shifting from timelines of months or years to days or weeks.

• Michael Navarro is an associate professor of marine fisheries at the University of Alaska Southeast. Sustainable Alaska is a regular feature by the UAS Sustainability Committee. The views expressed here do not necessarily represent the views of UAS.