Texas floods are the tip of the Trump iceberg

Flooding of the Guadalupe River near Kerrville, Texas. (U.S. Coast Guard photo)

It’s hard to read about the campers washed away in the night by a flash flood. It’s a tragic story. But what’s more tragic is that the moves by the Trump administration are increasing the likelihood that this story will repeat again, possibly for another summer camp in a different vulnerable region. 

I recently learned that while flood warnings were issued three times, there was no to little coordination to ensure the warnings got any traction. In a New York Times opinion piece, Zeynep Tufekci, explains that Paul Yura, the long-serving meteorologist in charge of “warning coordination” had opted for early retirement amid the cuts pushed by DOGE. He was not replaced. The warnings fall flat.

This is what happens when using a chainsaw approach to cutting government. Indiscriminate cuts with no regard for the expertise offered by longtime employees will result in key people missing at critical times. The question isn’t will this happen again, but how many more times will key people end up missing when disaster events occur? How long will it take the Trump Administration to reverse course? 

According to a report in The Guardian, more than 600 employees have exited the National Weather Service (NSW) amid the Trump Administration’s push to shrink government, leaving many offices short of meteorologists and support staff. The New York Times reports on new analysis showing that a third of the NWS offices located in regions particularly vulnerable to flash floods have one or more senior leadership roles vacant. In this analysis senior leadership is defined as either a chief meteorologist, warning coordinator, and/or operations manager.  

All this is happening when, due to climate change, flash floods are projected to become more severe, or as researchers say, more “flashy.” Flashiness turns out to be a measurement that compares the speed and severity of floods. The flashier a flood, the more rapidly the water rises which inflicts greater damage throughout the vulnerable regions. The map of “flash flood hotspots” shows how vast these affected regions are — the Appalachians, the East Coast, Missouri Valley, Texas and the entire West Coast. They all have numerous cities and communities at risk. And this is where a third of the NWS offices are lacking in senior leadership employees.  

Equally disturbing is learning that around a fifth of the full-time workers at the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), are also set to depart. In addition to staff shortages, FEMA is also being challenged by a lack of experienced leadership.  

The Trump administration had a credible official leading FEMA, but Cameron Hamilton, a conservative Republican, was fired one day after he testified to Congress that FEMA should stick around. Mr. Hamilton had experience as a Navy SEAL, a former combat medic and as the former director of the Emergency Medical Services Division at the Department of Homeland Security. He was replaced by a man with no prior experience in emergency management.

Politico recently reported that David Richardson, the agency’s acting administrator, has not been to the site of one of the nation’s deadliest floods in the U.S. in the past 25 years, upending a long practice of FEMA leaders making themselves visible after major disasters. In essence, both life-saving agencies, NWS and FEMA, are being depleted of key leadership and staff at the very worst time.

Did the absence of the “warning coordinator” result in the death of 36 girls and staff at Mystic Camp? There’s no way to say. All we know is that their chances would have been better if those three warnings had traction. 

Adding salt to the wound, the Trump administration plans to eliminate NOAA’s research division; meaning that any work to improve forecasting in the era of severe weather will stall. In other words, modelling improvements will not see the light of day. 

Today it’s a deadly flash flood in Texas. Tomorrow it could be a raging wildfire or a tornado. And we know hurricane season is just around the corner. The tragic flood wiping out Mystic Camp is just the tip of the disaster iceberg released and rocked by the blind, blunt actions of the Trump administration.  

Speaking of icebergs, I am relieved to find our local NWS office is closely monitoring Suicide Basin. I also have confidence in a our locally coordinated response to any next jökulhlaup. I don’t bring this staffing and expertise information forth to raise local concern, but rather to make an electorate informed of Trump’s role in having key people missing when the next disaster rolls around. As such, Trump needs to reverse course for the sake of saving lives. 

• Kate Troll, a longtime Alaskan, has more than 25 years of experience in coastal management, fisheries and energy policy and is a former executive director for United Fishermen of Alaska and the Alaska Conservation Voters. She’s been elected to local office twice, written two books and resides in Juneau.

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