Alaska population loss looms with fewer births and more deaths in an aging population
- Alaska Beacon
- 2 hours ago
- 3 min read
By Yereth Rosen
Alaska Beacon
Fewer Alaska babies are being born and more Alaskans are dying, causing the state’s natural population increase margin to shrink substantially over the past decade, according to state demographers.
Alaska is far from alone in this population change, according to the analysis, described in an article published in Alaska Economic Trends, the state Department of Labor and Workforce Development research section’s monthly magazine.
“Basically, we’re going in the same direction as the national trend,” said Eric Sandberg, the state demographer who authored the article.
Natural population increase – the difference between births and deaths — has offset Alaska’s population losses from more people leaving the state than moving in.
The state in 2024 completed its 13th consecutive year of net outmigration, an unprecedented streak in a record that goes back to the years right after World War II.
Through those years, the state population remained fairly steady, with some years of slight decreases and some years of slight increases. Last year, the population was up by 0.22%, according to state demographers.
If the birth-death gap and net outmigration trends persist, however, Alaska can expect long-term declines, Sandberg said.
“As the gap continues to close and if we continue our outmigration, we would wind up with a population loss,” he said.
The number of births in Alaska peaked in the mid-1980s at more than 12,000 a year. In recent years, that annual number has been around 9,000. Annual death totals, meanwhile, have risen as the state’s population continues to age. Annual deaths that totaled about 4,000 a decade ago have risen to about 5,500 now, with the exception of 2021, when the COVID-19 pandemic was most severe and Alaska deaths totaled over 6,000.
Birth, death and natural population increase statistics vary by region in Alaska.
The Yukon-Kuskokwim region of Western Alaska, for example, continues to have relatively high birth rates, even as it also has high out-migration rates, leaving the population totals steady over the past decade. Some areas of Southeast Alaska, in contrast, have had more deaths than births over the past decade, according to Sandberg’s analysis.
There are still more births than deaths in Alaska, which sets the state apart from some other parts of the nation, Sandberg said. Already, in 20 states there are more deaths than births, he said.
Alaska’s birth statistics are also higher than those of most states. Alaska’s 2024 average of 1.9 children per woman was the third highest in the nation, after South Dakota. The lowest average that year was in the District of Columbia, at 1.1 children per woman.
But no state – including Alaska, South Dakota and Nebraska —- had enough births in 2024 to meet the population replacement rate, defined as an average of 2.1 children per woman during childbearing years.
The factors behind the decline in births in Alaska and elsewhere are multiple, Sandberg said.
One is the trend toward older mothers and the drop in birth rates to mothers under 30 years old. Economic pressures could be a factor, and there may be a preference for smaller families, he said.
The trends are not just national but global, with most of the world outside of sub-Saharan Africa now experiencing relatively low fertility rates, Sandberg’s analysis showed.
The decline has been a concern in some nations, but policy responses seem elusive, he said. “I’m not aware of anyone being able to raise those fertility rates long-term,” he said.
• Yereth Rosen came to Alaska in 1987 to work for the Anchorage Times. She has been reporting on Alaska news ever since, covering stories ranging from oil spills to sled-dog races. She has reported for Reuters, for the Alaska Dispatch News, for Arctic Today and for other organizations. Alaska Beacon is part of States Newsroom, the nation’s largest state-focused nonprofit news organization.
