Federal government shutdown postpones Alaska’s annual population estimate
- Alaska Beacon
- 1 day ago
- 2 min read
By James Brooks
Alaska Beacon
Alaska’s annual population estimate will be delayed almost a month due to last year’s federal government shutdown.
State demographer David Howell said on Wednesday that the state estimate isn’t expected until at least Jan. 28 due to the lack of required data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
The estimate is typically published in the first full week of January by the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and reflects information as of July the previous year.
While the department uses Permanent Fund Dividend data to hone its guess, it also incorporates Census data published annually. That data, normally available by the start of the year, isn’t expected until Jan. 27, Howell said. That means the state’s estimate can’t be finalized.
The estimate is a barometer of the state’s economic and social health: When the state’s economy is booming and the Lower 48’s economy is stagnant, in-migration surges. When the opposite is true, more people leave the state than arrive.
Last year’s estimate showed 741,147 residents, the highest population since 2017, in part due to an unexpected surge in the estimated number of people moving to Alaska from outside the United States.
If the new estimate is on par or above last year’s figure, it could be a sign that the state’s decade-long economic malaise is ebbing.
This year’s estimate is also expected to incorporate an increase in military residents in and near Fairbanks, which could boost the Golden Heart’s population.
In the long run, Alaska’s population is expected to drop because a lack of new arrivals has caused the state’s average age to rise.
That leads to a drop in the number of new births and a rise in the number of elderly Alaskans. By 2050, the agency expects the state’s population to drop by about 2%.
• James Brooks is a longtime Alaska reporter, having previously worked at the Anchorage Daily News, Juneau Empire, Kodiak Mirror and Fairbanks Daily News-Miner. Alaska Beacon is part of States Newsroom, the nation’s largest state-focused nonprofit news organization.
