Poll: Peltola ahead of Sullivan in race that could decide control of US Senate
- Mark Sabbatini
- Oct 21
- 2 min read
Former Democratic congresswoman — who is not a declared candidate — leads two-term Republican 48%-46% in hypothetical matchup
By Mark Sabbatini
Juneau Independent
Former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola, D-Alaska, is leading two-term U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, 48% to 46%, with 6% undecided, in a hypothetical 2026 election matchup, according to poll results released Monday.
The gap is within the poll’s margin of error, making the hypothetical race a statistical tie. Peltola is not a declared candidate for any race in 2026, although she has been frequently mentioned as a leading Democratic contender for both Senate and governor.
A tight Senate race could put a national spotlight on Alaska in 2026 since Republicans currently hold 53 of the 100 seats, meaning a loss of four seats would allow Democrats to regain control of the chamber. However, forecasts by political analysts currently state that is unlikely — Sabato's Crystal Ball, for instance, rates 51 seats as leaning or solidly Republican, 45 Democratic and two as toss-ups.
"The 2026 Senate midterm elections should be Republicans’ to lose with a map that strongly favors the GOP," the forecast at Thompson Coburn LLP declares.
The Alaska Senate survey of 2,083 adults was conducted between Oct. 10 and 15 by Alaska Survey Research. The Anchorage-based firm has a "left-center bias" and "high-credibility" rating by the website Media Bias / Fact Check.
The results for the Alaska Senate race were published by Ivan Moore, the poll company’s owner, on an official Bluesky page. He noted the results also show Sullivan’s negative perception rate reached 50% for the first time in a survey by the company.
Among the respondents in the survey, 29% identified as Republican, 15% as Democrat, 48% independent and 8% other, according to Moore. A total of 52% said they voted for Donald Trump and 39% for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.
A survey released in early August by the progressive poll company Data for Progress found Peltola leading the prospective field of candidates for governor. Under Alaska’s ranked choice voting system, 40% of survey respondents picked Peltola, 11% Republican business leader Bernadette Wilson and 10% Republican Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom. In a head-to-head matchup after the ranking process played out, Peltola would defeat Dahlstrom 65% to 35%, according to the survey.
There was speculation Peltola, who is currently senior director of Alaska affairs for the law firm Holland & Hart LLP, would announce her 2026 intentions at the annual Alaska Federation of Natives convention that concluded during the weekend. But Peltola opened her speech on Friday with what she called an "anticlimactic" note by saying there were “no big announcements, no big declarations" about a possible candidacy.
A Sullivan campaign spokesperson did not return a message from the Independent on Tuesday.
• Contact Mark Sabbatini at editor@juneauindependent.com or (907) 957-2306.
