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Thursday flood update: Mendenhall River crests at 14.7 feet at 2:15 p.m., evacuation advisory lifted
Updated: Aug 13
Peak level is the lowest since annual major flooding started in 2023; lower rate of water release from basin, river at lower level at start of flood cited as possible factors
By Jasz Garrett and Mark Sabbatini
Juneau Independent
This story will be updated throughout the day, with the most recent information at the top.
Update 5:45 p.m.
An evacuation advisory has been lifted in flood zone areas, which "are now open to residents only," according to an alert issued at 5:28 p.m. by the City and Borough of Juneau.
The Brotherhood Bridge is also reopened to pedestrians, but the Back Loop Bridge remains closed while state transportation officials assess its safety, according to the notice.
All city facilities in the area except the Mendenhall Valley Public Library are scheduled to be open on Friday.
An update by emergency response, weather service and other officials is scheduled at 7:15 p.m. Thursday.
Update 3:45 p.m.
The Mendenhall River crested at about 2:15 p.m. Thursday at 14.7 feet, the lowest peak flood level in four years, according to National Weather Service Juneau. The river had dropped to 14.2 feet as of 3:30 p.m.
"Remember, it can take up to an hour for areas downstream to reflect these changes," NWS Juneau stated in a post on its Facebook page at about 3:20 p.m., adding the river is expected to drop below the major flood stage of 14 feet within the hour.
An evacuation advisory remains in effect until the river drops below 12 feet, according to a City and Borough of Juneau message. A NWS Juneau forecast chart shows the river should drop to that level by about 5 p.m.
The flood crested at 14.97 feet in 2023, 15.99 feet in 2024 and 16.65 feet in 2025.
Alaska Electric Light and Power, in an update at 3:35 p.m., stated it expects to turn power back on for View Drive customers at about 4 p.m.
Update 2 p.m.
The Mendenhall River is expected to reach a peak of 14.8 feet at 3 p.m. Thursday, well below earlier forecasts and last year’s record level of 16.65 feet, according to a National Weather Service Juneau update at 1:30 p.m.
The reasons for the lower crest are still being determined, but a lower rate of water release from the basin and the river being at a lower level at the start of the flood compared to last year appear to be factors, said Aaron Jacobs, the senior service hydrologist at the National Weather Service Juneau, in an interview shortly after the updated forecast was published at the official Suicide Basin monitoring site.
"The mass that we saw this year per-hour change was 2,000 cubic feet per second," he said. "In comparison, last year we saw about 3,200 to 3,300 cfs increase per hour for multiple hours."
The Mendenhall River was at about four feet when this year’s glacial lake outburst flood began Tuesday afternoon, compared to more than nine feet last year, when an atmospheric river occurred shortly beforehand.
The Southeast Alaska Food Bank announced it will be closed Thursday "after consulting the city and out of an abundance of caution." People in need of food assistance can visit the site for a limited distribution from 9:30-11 a.m. Friday, or visit other food pantries listed at https://www.seafb.org/schedules/.
Update 12:20 p.m.
The Mendenhall River passed the major flood stage of 14 feet at about 11:30 a.m. and is expected to remain above that level until about 6:15 p.m., according to National Weather Service Juneau. It was rising at about 0.4 feet an hour at midday, with the river still expected to crest between 2 and 6 p.m. at 15.8 to 16.3 feet.
Alaska Electric Light and Power, in an update at 12:15 p.m., stated "Water levels are rising more quickly now. We anticipate shutting off View Drive within the next hour."
Update 11 a.m.
Residents still in flood zones as the Mendenhall River approached the major flood stage said they were keeping a constant check on the river level and debris floating by, but more out of interest than anxiety about the hours ahead before the flood crests.
"I am so not worried," said Gary Leder, who was watering his garden in the backyard of his riverside home on Marion Drive at about 9:30 a.m. He said he was checking the river every hour, which as of midmorning was still several feet below a double stack of HESCO barriers along his property, observing an occasional tree in the water.
Similar faith was expressed by Lee Liberté, a resident across the street who said her front yard flooded two years ago. She said she saw city and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers doing checks along the street throughout the night "which was really comforting."
"I hope you let these people that were here in the middle of the night and driving by and whatever, we say we’re grateful," she said.
Some people are reporting small amounts of water on the "dry" side of the barriers Thursday morning, which was expected, according to city officials. People observing seepage are asked to contact the city’s flood hotline at 907-500-0890.
Among the residents who did heed the city’s evacuation advisory was Victoria Porter, a resident of a condominium on Glacer Highway near the river, who was among the 17 residents who spent Wednesday night at the shelter at the Floyd Dryden campus. She also brought her two dogs, Elvis and Gracie, who stayed in an adjacent space for pets.
"I didn't want to worry. I just wanted to rest," she said, adding she hoped to return home by tonight.
A total of 17 people, two dogs and a cat stayed at the shelter overnight, said Britta Tonnessen, the community disaster program manager for the American Red Cross in Southeast Alaska. She said the shelter will remain open while the evacuation advisory is in effect, which could mean another night of operation due to delays in the forecast crest of the flood, which as of 11 a.m. was between 2 and 6 p.m.
"We’re gearing up for another night, but hoping for the best," she said.
Update 9:30 a.m.
In a joint press briefing on Thursday morning, the National Weather Service Juneau announced it expects the Mendenhall River's crest height to be slightly lower — between 15.8 and 16.3 feet. The crest is also expected to occur between 2 p.m. and 6 p.m. Thursday, which gives residents more time to evacuate.
"It's actually tracking relatively similar to 2024 and 2023 releases, which were about the same rate of rise," said Nicole Ferrin, a warning coordination meteorologist with NWSJ.
"We had adjusted for what happened last year, and last year we had a lot more water from the atmospheric river," she said.
Last year, the Mendenhall River crested at a record-breaking 16.65 feet on the morning of Aug. 13.
Ferrin said within the next hour or so, the flood stage is expected to reach 14 feet.
"That's when water's hitting the HESCO barriers and when the evacuation area is at greatest risk," she said. "So we are thankful that the crest is happening during the daytime now, where we can observe it. And anyone that hadn't evacuated last night, they could evacuate during the day."
Update 8:15 a.m.
The Mendenhall River was at 12.41 ft and rising at about 0.4 feet per hour as of 7:30 a.m., according to the official Suicide Basin monitoring website. The river is expected to reach the major flood stage of 14 feet at about 9:15 a.m. and remain above that level until about 2:45 p.m. A hydrograph shows a forecast peak level of 16.4 feet at midday, with the weather service still forecasting a time between 11 a.m. and 3 p.m.
An update by emergency response officials is scheduled at 9:15 a.m. It will be livestreamed by KTOO.
Update 6:30 a.m.
Danger along the Mendenhall River is increasing as large trees and debris are now being swept downstream, with the river’s height nearing 12 feet and still expected to reach the major flood stage of 14 feet at about 9 a.m., said Andrew Park, a meteorologist with National Weather Service Juneau, in a livestreamed update at 6:05 a.m.
"As we can see through the cameras, the river really looks different today," he said. "It's really dangerous right now. So it's only going to get more dangerous. We're seeing big trees coming down the river. Do not come to the evacuation zone. Do not come check out the river. Stay away and let the responders do their job."
The river is still expected to crest at 16.1 to 16.6 feet between 11 a.m. and 3 p.m., Park said.
"Once we see that crest it usually takes about an hour for the river to start to diminish, and then we'll see rapid water drop through the rest of Thursday evening," he said.
Alaska Electric Light and Power will begin evaluating the need to cut power to flood zone areas, beginning with the View Drive neighborhood when the major flood stage is reached, according to a City and Borough of Juneau announcement.
"Additional areas of the valley will be evaluated closer to the 16 foot flood stage, or between 11 a.m. and 3 p.m. Thursday morning/afternoon with similar possibilities for power disconnects," the announcement notes. "These times may change based on evolving flood conditions, and continual reevaluations will be ongoing."
Outage alerts will be posted at facebook.com/AELPJuneau. The CBJ announcement says residents should minimize water use if power is disconnected.
Gov. Mike Dunleavy on Wednesday evening issued a state disaster declaration for the impending flood, following a request for assistance from CBJ and the Central Council of the Tlingit and Haida Indian Tribes of Alaska.
The declaration activates the State of Alaska Public Assistance disaster recovery program and also "allows the state to temporarily waive certain administrative regulations that could otherwise impede immediate prevention or mitigation efforts, such as clearing waterway debris that threatens flood-control barriers, " according to a press release issued by the governor’s office.
Update 1:30 a.m.
A Mendenhall River crest between 16.1 and 16.6 feet is now expected between 11 a.m. and 3 p.m. Thursday, according to a 1 a.m. update by National Weather Service Juneau.
"We'll just continue to track it through the night and try to fine-tune that crest timing," said Andrew Park, a meteorologist with National Weather Service Juneau.
The Mendenhall River reached a minor flood stage at 1 a.m. and was 9.7 feet and rising at about 0.4 feet per hour, according to the weather service's Suicide Basin monitoring page.
A moderate flood stage begins at 10 feet. At 10 feet, water levels begin to inundate the Mendenhall Campground with up to three feet of water covering low areas as well as up to 1.5 feet of water covering Skaters Cabin Road. Areas along View Drive are expected to start flooding, including minor flooding of yards.
Water levels are expected to go above the major flood stage around 9 a.m. Thursday, according to the flood warning statement.
Update 12:15 a.m.
A Mendenhall River crest between 16.1 and 16.6 feet is now expected between 10 a.m. and 2 p.m. Thursday.
"We're meeting expectations a little slower than we thought, but the trend stays the same," said Andrew Park, a meteorologist with National Weather Service Juneau.
He said the forecasted crest time was changed due to a slower rate of rise than anticipated.
"It's nothing unusual," Park said. "It's just one of those things where the biggest uncertainty is that conduit and how the water escapes from the basin to the lake."
As of 11 p.m. Wednesday, Mendenhall Lake was at 9.1 feet, with a rate of rise of around 0.7 feet every hour, according to the weather service's Suicide Basin monitoring page. The website is expected to be updated every two hours throughout the flood.
See also: Flood updates from Wednesday
A 9:30 p.m. update from the weather service on Wednesday previously stated the crest was expected between 8 a.m. and 12 p.m.
Park said the major flood stage and crest occurring during daylight will help first responders monitor the situation in the Mendenhall Valley.
• Contact Jasz Garrett at jasz@juneauindependent.com or 907-723-9356. Contact Mark Sabbatini at editor@juneauindependent.com or 907-957-2306.
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