Update: Suicide Basin reaches capacity; Governor issues precautionary disaster declaration
- Jasz Garrett
- 10 hours ago
- 4 min read
Updated: 1 hour ago
"Our goal is to act early to reduce impacts and preserve community safety."
By Jasz Garrett
Juneau Independent
Gov. Mike Dunleavy has issued a state disaster declaration Sunday in preparation for the release of Suicide Basin. In the evening, the basin was determined to be full and it is overtopping the ice dam.
As of 7 p.m. Sunday, the release has not started, but could happen at any point in the next six days, according to a Facebook post by National Weather Service Juneau. A Special Weather Statement has been issued.
"We are continuing to closely watch the situation and will update as needed," the post states.
Just after 8:10 p.m., the City and Borough of Juneau sent out an emergency alert that the basin is full and stated "now is the time to make last minute preparations, finalize evacuation plans, and pack a go bag." Another alert will be issued upon release of the basin.
Residents are recommended to check for updates at the official Suicide Basin monitoring website. Hydrologic monitoring by the weather service and U.S. Geological Survey confirms that the volume of water currently impounded in Suicide Basin has reached or exceeded levels observed during prior flood-of-record events.
The site as of Sunday evening forecasts a peak river level of 16.5 feet, compared to last year’s peak of 15.99 feet. But Aaron Jacobs, senior service hydrologist with the National Weather Service Juneau, said the forecast scenario is "a moving target." The forecast scenario predicting a 16.5-foot river crest is if the basin began releasing on Sunday, but it has yet to drain.
"We're going to be putting out another scenario forecast tomorrow, but at this time, there's no release happening, and it all really depends on watching the Mendenhall Lake level drop after the heavy rains have passed," Jacobs said.
He said hopefully there will be time for the Mendenhall Lake to come down in levels. Heavy rain is expected overnight into Monday morning and it should taper off throughout Monday.
Jacobs stressed residents stay aware of the monitoring page and the levels of Mendenhall Lake.
Dunleavy’s emergency declaration follows a joint local disaster declaration and unified request for assistance submitted Friday by CBJ and the Central Council of the Tlingit and Haida Indian Tribes of Alaska.
“By issuing this declaration before the flood occurs, we can position state resources and personnel in advance to support local and tribal governments in their efforts to protect lives, homes, and essential services,” Dunleavy said. “Our goal is to act early to reduce impacts and preserve community safety.”
This year’s conditions follow two consecutive years of severe flooding. In August 2024, the glacial lake outburst flood caused widespread damage to homes, public infrastructure, and utilities, resulting in a state and federal disaster declaration. This year, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers provided HESCO barriers for CBJ to install along the Mendenhall River as a short-term mitigation effort.
At a press briefing on Friday, the city and weather service advised residents to call 911 immediately if they notice a breach in the barriers. Nicole Ferrin, a warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service Juneau, said if they learn the HESCOs have been breached, a flash flood warning will be issued.
She said a flash flood warning will be "above and beyond" the base warning in effect and it will trigger the emergency alert system.
"This situation that we're in right now isn't considered a flash flood warning because it takes 48 hours for us to reach the crest of the flood," Ferrin said. "A flash flood is imminent, and like very short-fused, very fast rushing water, much more faster than the water that we are already going to be seeing, and it's immediate threat to life and property."
She said Juneau has never experienced a flash flood and it would be treated in exactly the same way as if the Salmon Creek Dam failed.
"It would take us a relatively short amount of time, a few minutes, to get that flood warning issued once we're notified about it," Ferrin said. "But hopefully people have already evacuated the area and they're not in that threat region ahead of time."
She said if residents are still in their homes when a flash flood warning is issued, "they will not have time" to evacuate. Ferrin cautioned against being caught in fast-moving water.
Once Suicide Basin begins to release, residents are recommended to evacuate to the emergency shelter at Floyd Dryden Middle School. It is also suggested to utilize the city's Emergency Flood Response page and sign up for emergency alerts.
The State Emergency Operations Center has been activated to support local and tribal efforts. These efforts include interagency coordination, emergency permitting, public messaging, and preparations for protective actions and potential response.
Jeremy Zidek, public information officer for the Alaska Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, said the emergency operations center will have to see what the release brings, but "we at the state level are positioned and prepared to respond quickly to whatever the City and Borough of Juneau or the Tlingit and Haida tribe may need."
He said that while disasters are unpredictable, the state's emergency management and response apparatus is ready to move if necessary.
"A lot of activity has taken place in Juneau, and there's a lot of activity that's been taking place around the state with our other partner organizations that were active last year and other agencies to make sure that we can deploy resources down to Juneau quickly and help people out in the way that they're going to need," he said.
• Contact Jasz Garrett at jasz@juneauindependent.com or (907) 723-9356.
