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JKT moves to ‘likely’ winner, Peltola and Begich still ‘lean’ favorites in final Crystal Ball ratings
Some pundits questioning if polls are overstating how Democratic candidates will fare nationally on Election Day
By Mark Sabbatini
Juneau Independent
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins is now a "Likely Democratic" winner in Alaska’s governor’s race after endorsements by prominent Republicans in recent days, while Democratic U.S. Senate challenger Mary Peltola and Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Nick Begich are "lean" favorites in Alaska’s congressional races, according to final ratings published Monday by the election forecasting website Sabato's Crystal Ball.
"We are moving the open (governor’s) seat in Alaska from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic, as Democrats appear to be clearer favorites to win there than in the Senate race," the website noted in its updated forecasts.
A second major forecasting site, The Cook Political Report, as of midday Monday rates Kreiss-Tomkins and Begich "lean" favorites in their races, while the Senate race between Peltola and Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan is a toss-up.
Both forecast websites, as well as the Decision Desk HQ published by The Hill, forecast Democrats will easily win control of the U.S. House and narrowly win control of the U.S. Senate, after Republicans presided over both during the past two years. Polls and betting prediction websites are making similar forecasts, although some pundits are questioning if the results are overly favorable to Democrats due to worse-than-predicted outcomes in multiple instances since Donald Trump surprised many experts with his first presidential win in 2016.
Alaska has not elected a Democratic governor since 1998. But Kreiss-Tomkins, a former state legislator from Sitka, is favored to defeat three Republican challengers in the race to succeed Gov. Mike Dunleavy, who is ineligible to run this year after serving two consecutive terms. The Democratic challenger’s campaign was boosted last week when he was endorsed by Republican U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski, her father Frank Murkowski who was a former governor and senator, and other state GOP officials.
Polls show the leading Republican challenger is Anchorage business owner Bernadette Wilson, who has been endorsed by Trump, followed by former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson and former state Attorney General Treg Taylor.
Begich was considered "likely" to win a second term during much of this year’s election cycle, according to forecasting websites, but that narrowed last month as Republicans are facing increasingly challenging races nationwide. The most recent poll published by The New York Times on Monday shows Begich defeating independent challenger Bill Hill 52%-48% when ranked choice votes are tabulated.
Alaska’s U.S. Senate race — already one of the most closely watched in the U.S. since it could be decisive in determining which party controls the chamber — has seen a far brighter spotlight during the final days before Election Day due to allegations the Peltola campaign recruited spoiler candidates with the same name as the incumbent.
The Trump administration is pursuing a lawsuit seeking to halt certification if Sullivan narrowly loses, and both Trump and Dunleavy have said criminal investigations of the matter are taking place. Legal experts saw the lawsuit — now being appealed after a federal judge dismissed it Sunday — appears to lack merit since the "ballot stacking" allegations involving the Peltola campaign are generally legal.
The Hill’s Decision Desk on Monday forecast Peltola has a 61% chance of winning the race. An Alaska Survey Research poll conducted Oct. 26-29 shows Peltola winning 51-49%, while an InsiderAdvantage survey conducted Oct. 31-Nov. 1 shows the race tied at 50% each, according to The New York Times.
• Contact Mark Sabbatini at editor@juneauindependent.com or (907) 957-2306.
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