Peltola’s lead continues to grow, now exceeds votes for Dan J. Sullivan a week after Election Day

Democratic challenger ahead of Republican incumbent Dan S. Sullivan by 4,250 votes as of Tuesday night; alleged namesake ‘spoiler’ has 4,027 votes

Remy Maupin holds up signs supporting Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola outside Midtown Mall, Saturday, Oct. 31, 2026, in Anchorage, Alaska. (AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson)

By Mark Sabbatini

Juneau Independent

This is a developing story.

Democrat Mary Peltola, as expected, is continuing to expand her lead over Republican U.S. Sen. Dan S. Sullivan in results released Tuesday night, with her getting 48.79% of ballots tallied so far to his 47.05%, according to the Alaska Division of Elections.

The 1.7% difference is about 0.6 percentage points higher than results released late Monday, with the Associated Press estimating 84% of votes have now been tallied, up from 76% a day earlier. Ballots being tallied since Election Day a week ago are expected to favor Peltola since they are largely from remote areas where she has strong support. She was ahead by 0.3% the day after the initial election night count.

Also of significant note, Peltola is now ahead of Sullivan by more votes than those received by retired Petersburg resident Dan J. Sullivan, who is accused by Dan S. Sullivan and supporters of being a spoiler candidate put forth by the Peltola campaign to confuse voters. Dan J. Sullivan has 4,027 votes, or 1.65%, in the latest results.

A federal lawsuit ordered by President Donald Trump is seeking to halt certification of the election if Peltola wins by fewer votes than Dan J. Sullivan gets. Experts have widely stated the lawsuit appears to lack legal merit, but if Peltola’s margin holds it could make the issue at least somewhat moot.

Tuesday night’s count includes 245,470 ballots representing 40.54% of the state’s registered voters. The full results differ slightly from those shown in a summary at a Division of Elections webpage, which rounds off to the nearest tenth of a percentage and excludes tallies for write-in votes.

The state Division of Elections is scheduled to release more results on Friday.

If no candidate has a majority by Nov. 18, the deadline for legally mailed or otherwise processed ballots to arrive and be tallied, the ranked choice process will be used to determine a winner. Analyses published as of this week indicate Peltola will prevail after latter-choice votes on ballots first marked for Dan J. Sullivan and — if necessary — Republican Gerald Heikes (currently at 2.18%) are added to the two leading candidates.

In Alaska’s other closely watched statewide race, Democratic Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins remains on track to be the state’s next governor with 49.74% as of Tuesday night, ahead of Republicans Bernadette Wilson at 28.72%, Dave Bronson at 13.94% and Treg Taylor at 7.31%.

In Alaska’s other statewide race, Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. Nick Begich III appears likely to win reelection with 48.78% of the vote, ahead of independent Bill Hill at 40.91%. Democratic incarcerated federal inmate Eric Hafner has 7.47% and Libertarian Jim McDermott has 2.68%. Analyses of votes cast so far show Begich prevailing if a ranked choice runoff is necessary.

• Contact Mark Sabbatini at editor@juneauindependent.com or 907-957-2306.