Peltola won primary by 8%, but new poll shows general election race tied with Sen. Sullivan

Former Democratic congresswoman lost 2024 general election after getting 50.89% in that primary; survey released Wednesday shows similar outcome possible this year

This photo combination shows Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, Oct. 10, 2024, in Anchorage, Alaska, left, and Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, Feb. 8, 2024, on Capitol Hill in Washington. (Bill Roth, Mariam Zuhaib/Anchorage Daily News via AP/AP, file)

By Mark Sabbatini

Juneau Independent

One of this fall’s most-watched U.S. Senate races is still a toss up despite Democratic challenger Mary Peltola finishing more than 8% ahead of two-term Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan, according to results of a survey released Wednesday.

The Alaska Survey Research poll of 1,495 likely voters shows Peltola prevailing in a ranked choice tally 50.6% to 49.4 for Sullivan. The margin of error is 3%, meaning the race is statistically tied, according to the poll results.

Both Sullivan and Peltola — and supporters of theirs — argued things are different in a general election compared to a primary, in which Peltola prevailed 49.5% to 41.4%.

"We are going to win this race… but we haven’t won yet!" Peltola wrote in a campaign social media post after the results were certified on Monday. "This primary was just the first test of the most competitive and expensive race in the country."

Sullivan offered similar comments in a speech to an Anchorage crowd after the first primary results came in Aug. 18, claiming "my opponent, the Democrat, she’s got unlimited money from Lower 48 billionaires and millionaires, and, you know, who the hell ever. We don’t have that money, right? But we got you, and we’re going to win the general election with you.”

Peltola finished first in the U.S. House primary with 50.89% of the vote, but Republican Nick Begich III won the general election in November by a 51.3%-48.7% split when the ranked choice votes were tallied. Among the factors in Begich’s favor was a higher general election turnout for a contest that included the presidential election and fellow Republican Nancy Dahlstrom dropping out and supporting Begich when she finished behind him in the primary.

The Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball both rate this year’s Senate race in Alaska a toss up that could potentially decide which party controls the majority during the final two years of President Donald Trump’s second term.

"Turnout is going to grow less from August to November in a midterm year than in a presidential year," Sabato's analysis notes. "For instance, the number of votes cast for House in November 2024 was about triple that of those cast in August. Back in 2022, the November vote was only about 140% of the August vote. That year’s concurrent special election to fill the vacant House seat probably drove some additional turnout in August, but the change from August to November won’t be as stark this year as it was in 2024. Best guess: Peltola."

Ivan Moore, owner of Alaska Survey Research, noted in a social media post that his full survey released Tuesday was of 2,063 registered voters, with 49.6% of those respondents offering a positive view of Peltola versus 41.7% a positive view of Sullivan — nearly identical results to their primary finish.

The reason for the deadlocked race a lower ratio of registered voters 18-34 and in rural Alaska who are considered likely voters, and those groups are Peltola’s strongest supporters, according to Moore.

Sullivan got a pledge of support Wednesday from Trump, who said he will visit Alaska during the final month before the Nov. 3 election to support the incumbent and denounce the state’s ranked choice voting that puts up to four candidates on the ballot. The third-ranked candidate in the race is retired Petersburg teacher Dan J. Sullivan, who got 2.47% of the primary vote.

Republicans, including Sen. Sullivan and Trump, accuse the Petersburg resident of being a sham candidate seeking to trick voters, which he denies.

"He was put up by the Democrats, and they don’t admit it, but it’s been so proven,” Trump said, although no such link has been definitely established.

• Contact Mark Sabbatini at editor@juneauindependent.com or (907) 957-2306.