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Primary election results indicate Alaska House, Senate coalition majorities are likely in 2027
- Mark Sabbatini
- 4 hours ago
- 8 min read
Coalition-inclined Republicans, Democrats and independents posted winning results in August, but November’s general election remains ahead
Alaska Beacon
Final results from Alaska’s August primary election indicate existing coalition majorities in the state House and Senate are likely to continue after November’s general election and could even grow.
Alaska is the only state in the country where the state House and Senate are both controlled by coalitions of Democrats, independents and Republicans, something that forces bipartisan and multipartisan negotiations and compromises.
In Monday’s certified primary results, coalition-leaning candidates led 24 of 40 state House races. The current coalition majority includes 21 lawmakers — two Republicans, 16 Democrats and three independents.
In the state Senate, 10 of 20 seats are up for election this year. Coalition members or coalition-inclined candidates lead in seven of those races. Seven other coalition members are not up for election this year.
“I think you have a chance for one of the strongest coalitions in a very long time,” said Andrew Halcro, a former state legislator and moderate Republican who commentates on Alaska politics via a popular podcast.
Any majority group that controls the House and Senate dictates the agenda — who chairs committees, what bills advance and which ones do not.
In the 34th Alaska State Legislature, conflicts between the coalition-led Legislature and Gov. Mike Dunleavy, a conservative Republican, led to a record number of vetoes and a lack of resolution on major issues, including a proposed trans-Alaska natural gas pipeline, increases in education funding and a long-term plan to balance state expenses and revenue.
Senate District S – Southwest Alaska
Sen. Lyman Hoffman, D-Bethel, is retiring this year as the longest-serving member of the Alaska Legislature in state history.
Five people signed up to replace him, including current Speaker of the House Bryce Edgmon, I-Dillingham. Edgmon was the top finisher in the primary, with 37.9% of the vote.
The other finalists in November’s election will be Republican Darren Deacon (23.9%), Democrat Wassilie Guy (18.9%), and nonpartisan Richard Robb (11.5%). None filed withdrawal paperwork before Monday’s deadline.
The fifth-place finisher was undeclared candidate Wayne Morgan (7.9%). He is eliminated and will not advance to November.
This year, 4,184 people voted in the district, and turnout was up significantly from two years ago, when 2,899 people voted in the primary.
In 2022, during a primary that coincided with a special general election, 4,257 people voted in the district and Hoffman earned 66.2% of the vote in a two-way race against Veterans Party candidate Willy Keppel.
House District 37 – Bristol Bay and the Aleutian Islands
Edgmon’s decision to run for Senate means there is no incumbent in the race to represent House District 37, which covers Bristol Bay and the Aleutians.
Seven candidates registered for the primary, the most of any state House race in Alaska.
The district is a tossup politically — two years ago, 50.8% of participating voters picked Republican Donald Trump for President, but 52.9% voted for Democratic U.S. House candidate Mary Peltola and 72.5% went for Edgmon for U.S. House.
Four years ago, the district went for Peltola and Republican U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski in the general election.
In the August primary, Republican Brenda Wilson of King Cove had 22.6% of the vote, the most among the seven candidates for state House.
The other three finalists are Democratic candidate Evelynn Trefon (19.8%), nonpartisan Mark Smith (17.5%) and nonpartisan Cade Woods (9.2%).
Democratic candidate Dennis Robinson had 15.1% of the vote but withdrew before Monday’s deadline, as did undeclared candidate Kimberly Johnson, who had 10.7% of the vote. Their withdrawals cleared the way for Woods to be promoted into the fourth spot.
As a result, there will be one Democrat, one Republican and two independents to pick from in November.
House District 23 – Eagle River
Incumbent Republican Rep. Jamie Allard was the top vote-getter in a five-way primary election for the state House seat representing half of Eagle River, earning 39.8% of the vote in a strongly Republican district.
Democratic candidate Jim Arlington advanced to the November election with 31.9% of the vote, followed by Republican Ruby Jones (13.9%) and Democrat Lee Hammermeister (5.8%).
Republican Nick Capozzi finished ahead of Hammermeister with 8.6% of the vote but withdrew before Monday’s deadline. In a statement on Facebook, he said he was withdrawing to fulfill a pre-election pledge to stop his campaign if he was “soundly defeated” in the primary.
Capozzi said he is not endorsing Allard and believes there is “growing dissatisfaction” with her in the district.
“While I sincerely hope District 23 is well represented, I believe the Republican Party should carefully evaluate who is best positioned to earn and maintain the confidence of District 23 voters in future elections,” he wrote.
Hammermeister, though registered as a Democratic candidate, does not have the party’s support.
House District 29 – Eastern Mat-Su
Incumbent Republican Rep. Garret Nelson of Sutton was appointed by Gov. Mike Dunleavy to represent the district after Dunleavy appointed its former representative, Republican George Rauscher, to the state Senate.
In the August primary, Nelson finished second, behind Republican Steve Menard, who had 39.4% of the vote in a six-way race that was the second most crowded among legislative contests last month.
Nelson had 23.2% of the vote, just ahead of Democratic candidate Kimberly Slone, who had 23.1% of the vote as the sole Democrat in a strongly Republican district.
Nonpartisan candidate Jessica Kusner-Kalarchik was fourth, with 8%.
Libertarian candidate Candice Frisby (4.2%) and undeclared candidate Amber Hansen (2%) were eliminated after finishing fifth and sixth, respectively.
House District 30 – Big Lake
A five-way race for the state House district representing Big Lake, the Denali Borough and the western Matanuska-Susitna Borough resulted in just three candidates advancing to the November election after the two lowest finishers withdrew ahead of Monday’s deadline.
Incumbent Republican Rep. Kevin McCabe had 32.4% of the vote in the heavily Republican district, followed by Democratic candidate Sandra Loomis with 29.2%.
Republican challenger Doug Massie was third, with 20.6%.
Withdrawals leave two more candidates running unopposed
Among Alaska’s 40 state House elections, four incumbents ran unopposed in August and will be unopposed in November, except for write-ins.
After one candidate was disqualified and another withdrew on Monday, two more races will also have candidates running unopposed.
Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, a Republican, disqualified Republican House District 22 candidate Jose Roel Tagle after the Alaska Public Offices Commission said he had violated state law by failing to disclose his personal finances on time.
Tagle’s disqualification leaves Democratic incumbent Ted Eischeid as the only candidate for the Anchorage district.
Elsewhere in Anchorage, former Anchorage Assembly member Felix Rivera quit the House District 13 race ahead of Monday’s deadline.
That district is currently represented by Democrat Andy Josephson, who is retiring and isn’t seeking re-election. Rivera’s departure leaves Democrat Lisa Keller as the only option on the ballot in November.
The other four unopposed state House legislators are Reps. Sara Hannan, D-Juneau; Chuck Kopp, R-Anchorage; Genevieve Mina, D-Anchorage; and Will Stapp, R-Fairbanks.
In the Senate, three of 10 races are unopposed: Sens. Bert Stedman, R-Sitka; Löki Tobin, D-Anchorage; and Bill Wielechowski, D-Anchorage, all remain on track to return to the Capitol in January.
In open districts, conservative Republican candidates tended to trail
While Republican candidate Brenda Wilson led all challengers in the primary for House District 37, her performance wasn’t repeated by all Republicans in open state House and Senate seats.
In Senate District C, which covers Kodiak, Cordova and parts of the southern Kenai Peninsula, Rep. Louise Stutes, R-Kodiak, earned 49.4% of the vote to replace Sen. Gary Stevens, R-Kodiak.
Stevens is retiring, and the seat has no incumbent. Stutes is a moderate, one of two Republican members of the House’s coalition majority, and is expected to replace Stevens in the Senate’s coalition majority if elected.
Two more conservative Republicans, Heath Smith of Homer (37.8%) and Carrie Harris of Anchor Point (12.9%) finished behind Stutes in second and third.
In Stutes’ House District 5 in Kodiak, nonpartisan candidate Kathy Simpler had 61.4% of the vote against Republican challenger Sheldon Prout in a head-to-head race.
In Anchorage, where Democratic candidate Cliff Groh is attempting a return to the state House in the district covering Government Hill and Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, he had 67.2% of the vote against Republican challenger Dan Sager. The seat is currently held by Republican Rep. David Nelson, who is not seeking re-election.
Farther north, in Eagle River, Republican Rep. Dan Saddler is retiring. Republican Ken McCarty, a former legislator himself, led a three-way race to replace Saddler, earning 46.8% of the vote.
One of the other candidates in the race, former Rep. Sharon Jackson, withdrew ahead of Monday’s deadline. That leaves Republican Gina Wall, who earned 33.8% of the primary vote, as McCarty’s sole challenger.
In Fairbanks, Republican Rep. Frank Tomaszewski is running for the state Senate seat being vacated by Republican Robert Myers. Primary results showed him with 60.9% of the vote in a head-to-head race against Democratic challenger William Hunt.
Four incumbents trail in primary, but outcomes could change in November
In Anchorage’s Sand Lake neighborhood, Democratic candidate Denny Wells had 52.7% of the vote in a head-to-head race against Republican incumbent Rep. Mia Costello.
That’s a reversal of the general-election result two years ago, when Costello had 51.5% of the vote in a race against Wells and perennial candidate Dustin Darden, running as a Democrat.
The district has a slight Republican lean — it went for Trump two years ago, but the Republican candidate had less than 50% of the district’s vote for president.
In Homer, Republican Rep. Sarah Vance finished the primary more than 13 percentage points behind nonpartisan challenger Brent Johnson, who earned 56.9% of the vote in a head-to-head race.
Vance has been in office since 2019 and has governed as a Christian conservative, but she appeared to alienate some conservative Republicans this year when she worked across party lines on a bipartisan election reform bill.
Gov. Mike Dunleavy vetoed that bill, and lawmakers sustained his veto after two Republicans — both from southeast Alaska — switched from supporting the bill to opposing it.
In Fairbanks, Rep. Tomaszewski’s wife, Harmony, is the lone Republican candidate in the strongly Republican district being vacated by Tomaszewski. But in final primary election results, Harmony trailed nonpartisan candidate Joy Beth Cottle by 6 percentage points.
The two will appear on the ballot again in November.
In Western Alaska, Rep. Nellie Unangiq Jimmie was the only incumbent Democrat who didn’t finish first in the primary.
With 29% of the vote, she finished second to former Democratic Rep. CJ McCormick, whom she defeated in 2024.
Republican Willy Keppel was third with 24.3% of the vote, followed by nonpartisan candidate Joseph Amik, with 14.7%.
Turnout in the Democratic-leaning district was low by comparison with the rest of the state — fewer than 16% of eligible voters cast ballots in the primary.
Primary success isn’t a guarantee of success in November, even in head-to-head contests: Two years ago, Sen. Scott Kawasaki, D-Fairbanks, received fewer votes in the August primary than his Republican challenger, Leslie Hajdukovich.
Just three months later, Kawasaki reversed that result and remains a member of the Senate today.
• James Brooks Cascade is a longtime Alaska reporter who lives in Juneau. He previously worked at the Anchorage Daily News, Juneau Empire, Kodiak Mirror and Fairbanks Daily News-Miner. Alaska Beacon is part of States Newsroom, the nation’s largest state-focused nonprofit news organization.
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