Report: Juneau expected to lose nearly 7,600 residents during next 30 years

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Southeast leaders told current economy is strong, with a major shift in jobs by industry during past 15 years, while cautioned about large predicted drop in population

A graph shows projected population losses in Southeast Alaska communities between 2025 and 2055, according to a recent State of Alaska study. (Chart by Rain Coast Data)

By Mark Sabbatini

Juneau Independent

Optimism about a strong current economy in Southeast Alaska and a warning about a sharp drop in the region’s population predicted during the next 30 years were offered to regional leaders confronting a range of changes and challenges at the beginning of the three-day Southeast Conference annual meeting Tuesday.

The findings were presented in an overview of "Southeast Alaska By The Numbers 2026," the 15th annual report published by Rain Coast Data. Meilani Schijvens, owner of the research and data company, told attendees at the Southeast Conference gathering in Ketchikan that "this is going to be a really good (report)."

"There's going to be some highs, some lows. It's very dramatic," she said. "Hang on to your seats."

The high points include reaching a record-high 46,988 jobs in Southeast during 2025, topping the previous record of 46,811 in 2012. The current total is an increase from 40,052 in 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic hit, although the rate of growth slowed from 5% in 2021 and 2022 to 1% in 2025.

But while the number of jobs is similar to 2012, the types of work people are doing are shifting considerably, Schijvens said.

"We've added 3,800 jobs in four sectors and lost 3,800 jobs in four different sectors," she said.

The job winners during that period are mining with a 68% increase, tourism up 37%, health care up 20% and professional/business up 16%. The biggest drops are social assistance with a 41% decline, state government a 25% decline, seafood a 20% decline and retail an 18% decline.

Tourism remains the region’s biggest private industry with 8,721 jobs, although the $391,851,562 in total earnings are relatively low per-person (about $44,932). In comparison, government as the largest overall employer with 12,891 jobs and $965,723,667 in total earnings equated to about $74,914 per person.

Inflation has risen 24% between 2020 and 2026, but average wages in Southeast have risen slightly more (about 24.5%) during that time, from $53,635 in 2020 to $66,796 this year, according to the study.

Many of the findings are similar to — and based on the same data as — an annual assessment of Juneau and Southeast Alaska published Monday by the Juneau Economic Development Council.

A cautionary warning about the "ghost of Christmas future" was offered by Schijvens when presenting a recently released state analysis of population projections during the next 30 years. That study predicts Juneau’s population will drop from 31,182 in 2025 to 23,589 by 2055 — a 24% drop.

"This is what's going to happen if we don't change anything," she said. "But there's a lot of things that we can change."

The new report states Southeast Alaska is expected to see a 22% population drop — nearly 16,000 people — during the next 30 years, according to the state’s projections. Haines is expected to see a 34% drop, Wrangell 30% and Sitka 27%, while the communities expected to shrink the least are Skagway at 7%, Petersburg at 7% and Ketchikan at 18%.

The regionwide figures include a 35% drop in people ages 0-19, 21% drop in people ages 20-59, and 14% of people 60 and older.

The findings come after a November 2024 state report projected Southeast Alaska would see a 17% population drop statewide, the largest in Alaska.

Schijvens, echoing comments of other speakers during the opening morning of the conference, noted housing is a significant factor in current outmigration and workforce shortage problems, as well as the future predicted drop in residents. But she said the solution isn’t simply building more housing.

"We've built 2,400 housing units across Southeast Alaska in the last 10 years. We know our population is down by 4,000, and yet we know we still have a housing shortage," she said. A key reason, she added, is there are fewer people per household, including a lot of people such as seniors who are living alone.

Among other actions suggested in her presentation to attendees at the conference are expanding affordable childcare, restoring reliable transportation, investing in schools and essential services, and retaining state and federal jobs.

"We had a fantastic 2025, but we have work to do," Schijvens told the audience. Referring to a slide showing the latest 30-year population projection, she declared "this is not going to be what happens because we know what we need to do."

(Disclosure: Meilani Schijvens is a member of the Juneau Independent’s board of directors. News articles about her company’s annual economic surveys of Southeast Alaska have regularly been published by Juneau and other media for many years.)

• Contact Mark Sabbatini at editor@juneauindependent.com or (907) 957-2306.