State study: Machine operators to see highest job growth, journalists biggest job drop by 2034

Growth in petroleum and mining will help boost some related occupations, while information and legal services in decline, according to Alaska Economic Trends analysis

A helicopter delivers a beam to the site for the proposed New Amalga Gold Project on July 18, 2026. (Jasz Garrett / Juneau Independent)

By Mark Sabbatini

Juneau Independent

It’s a good time to be embarking on a career as a machine operator or engineer in Alaska. Not so much a journalist or broadcaster.

A 10-year analysis of projected state jobs between 2024 and 2034 by the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development declares, "the fastest-growing occupations are an eclectic mix" that involve industries such as oil and gas, mining, and health care. Occupations expected to see declines include information-related industries, banking and finance, and certain construction-related jobs.

The fastest growth is expected to be mining, according to the findings published this week in the department’s October 2026 issue of Alaska Economic Trends.

"We project mining employment to increase by 23 percent over 10 years, based on sustained growth in potential mine development and existing mines rather than any specific new project," the department notes.

Another high-ranking growth industry is oil and gas employment, expected to increase by 12.2% by 2034 compared to 2024, due in part to new oil field projects coming online. Paul Martz, a labor department economist who authored the Alaska Economic Trends articles, said in an interview Tuesday the job increase does not include uncertain projects within the decade-long timeframe such as a much-discussed natural gas pipeline.

"We typically do have some criteria that we look at," he said. "It's not always the exact same thing because it depends on the projects. But it's what you would expect — how far along the permitting is, where the financing is, and those types of things. Typically these large-scale projects don't just spring up out of nowhere and so we're all continuously looking at what's happening."

The studies are conducted on a two-year cycle, so shifts in decade-long outlooks can generally be incorporated as part of that process, Martz said. If a significant shift were to occur during an intervening year "we would definitely write about it."

Alaska’s employment situation changed drastically between 2015 and 2020 due to an oil price crash at the beginning of that period and then the COVID-19 pandemic at the end of it, according to Alaska Economic Trends. Total state jobs dropped from 338,579 in 2015 to 303,046 in 2020.

As of 2024, "employment has nearly recovered to that 2015 high, helped by major oil developments," the magazine notes. "However, the upheaval of the last decade fundamentally, and potentially structurally, changed major parts of the economy."

Oil and gas jobs dropped from a peak of 15,309 in 2015 to 7,086 in 2021, so even with the growth predicted by 2034 those jobs are unlikely to return to their previous high, according to the department.

Mining, on the other hand, saw statewide jobs increase from 1,184 in 1990 to 3,893 in 2025, and is expected to rise to 4,654 by 3034, the analysis notes.

Specific occupations related to those resource industries are at the top of the study’s growth projections. The category "Crushing, Grinding, and Polishing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders" is expected to see a 23.1% growth in jobs between 2024 and 2034, followed by "Aerospace Engineering and Operations Technologists and Technicians" at 22.5%, "Mining and Geological Engineers, Including Mining Safety Engineers" at 17.8%, and "Petroleum Engineers" at 16.4%

At the bottom of the jobs chart are "News Analysts, Reporters, and Journalists" with a projected -27.9% loss, followed by "Broadcast Announcers and Radio Disc Jockeys" at 27.7%, "Advertising Sales Agents" at 20.7% and "Producers and Directors" at 18.5%.

"Legal and media occupations have been decreasing for years as services become easier to obtain remotely, and others have moved to freelance or self-employment," the magazine notes.

Among other major industries, health care employment is projected to grow 11.4% and food manufacturing 8.2%. Government employment is expected to drop 2.7% by 2034, and in particular "federal employment is difficult to predict with the political climate and strategic decisions continuing to shift," according to the department.

• Contact Mark Sabbatini at editor@juneauindependent.com or (907) 957-2306.