US Senate map trending toward Democrats, though GOP retains slim advantage

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico speaks during a campaign rally in Laredo, Texas, on July 14, 2026. A major elections forecaster moved the Texas Senate race, in which Talarico faces Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton, as a toss-up, though a Democrat has not won the state since 1994. (Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

By Jennifer Shutt

States Newsroom

Voters throughout much of the country will cast ballots for their U.S. senator this fall, but just nine states hold the power to determine control of the chamber — setting the course for which presidential nominees can secure confirmation and what bills advance during the next two years. 

The Senate races, as well as the campaigns for every House seat, will serve as a test of Republican policies after two years of unified control of Congress. The outcome of this year’s midterm elections will also have a substantial impact on the remainder of President Donald Trump’s term. 

Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, requiring Democratic candidates to win over voters in at least four states that previously chose a GOP lawmaker.

Zachary Peskowitz, political science professor at Emory University, said Republicans have a bit of an advantage this year, but that doesn’t guarantee they’ll keep their majority. 

“I think that the Senate is a tougher map for the Democrats than the House is,” he said. “But given Trump’s approval ratings, obviously it is certainly possible that Democrats win, even in these tougher states.”

Alaska, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas could be won by either candidate, according to a top elections forecaster, giving Democrats several paths to regain the Senate. That marks an improvement in the party’s chances, though they may also need to secure wins in competitive races in Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire.

A 50-50 split would keep Republicans in charge of the Senate with the vice president casting the tie-breaking vote.

While each Senate candidate has a different message and variations in their policy goals, big-picture issues like the war in Iran, immigration enforcement tactics and the rising cost of living are at the top of voters’ minds. That’s been clear on the campaign trail.

Immigration enforcement key in Maine

Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins, seeking her sixth term against Democratic challenger Troy Jackson, has faced several questions about immigration funding and federal officers’ actions. 

As chairwoman of the Appropriations Committee, Collins was central to negotiations earlier this year over whether Congress should place new guardrails on immigration enforcement after federal officers shot and killed two U.S. citizens in Minnesota.

She told reporters during the launch of her bus tour in mid-August that Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents involved in enforcement in Maine will now have to wear body cameras. Her comments came about a month after federal officers shot and killed Johan Sebastián Durán Guerrero in Biddeford. 

“I think what happened is too many of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Border Patrol agents were sent out there without proper vetting and without proper training,” she said. 

Collins also defended her decades-long strategy after a reporter asked about her voting record and criticism from Democrats that she often aligns with Trump.

“My approach has not changed in any way,” she said. “I have worked with five presidents. I’ve supported them when I think they’re right. I have not hesitated to oppose them when I think that they’re wrong.”

Affordability concerns amid Iran war 

North Carolina Democratic candidate Roy Cooper told supporters at a campaign rally in Henderson that healthcare should remain at the forefront, noting that changes to Medicaid included in Republicans’ “big, beautiful” law won’t take effect until after the election. 

“As we say back home on the farm, you ain’t seen nothing yet,” he said. “That’s why we need to send leaders there, to make sure that we are paying attention to those who have been left behind. Making sure that people have quality healthcare.”

The former governor and state attorney general spoke about concerns military families have experienced since Trump coordinated with the Israeli government to launch a war against Iran, which drags on despite the president’s initial claims it would only take about four to six weeks.

“We know this war in Iran has no strategy and we know that it is sending prices soaring at home,” he said. “Everybody at Fort Bragg obviously is on pins and needles worrying about their deployed loved ones who are out there. But also having to face the brunt of the rising prices in their own military families.” 

Cooper then criticized his opponent, former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley, for his comments on the economy, saying he hadn’t accepted how challenging the cost of living has become for Americans.

“People are struggling and looking up at the middle class and thinking, ‘Am I ever going to get there? Is the American dream dead?’ And so many people in the middle class who are just barely hanging on, not knowing what to do next,” he said. 

The issues highlighted during those two events are reflected in nearly every Senate campaign, with each candidate positioning themselves as the best solution to Americans’ struggles. 

GOP holds ‘slimmest of advantages’ 

So far, polling and analysis haven’t indicated a clear outcome to this fall’s elections. 

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas as toss-up races. Campaigns for Senate seats in Georgia, North Carolina and New Hampshire currently lean toward Democrats. 

Iowa and Texas had been in the lean Republican category but CPR changed that in late August, with Senate and Governors Editor Jessica Taylor writing “we see the overall battle for the Senate as a toss up, but one in which Republicans may still hold the slimmest of advantages.”

“Even though, on paper, it should be extraordinarily difficult for Democrats to flip seats that President Donald Trump won by more than 13 points, it’s increasingly hard to ignore both public and private polling showing both races to be more competitive than the Lean category reflects,” she added. 

Ratings could continue to fluctuate, possibly several times, before voting ends on Nov. 3, but the top concerns aren’t likely to change much during the next couple of months. 

A Pew Research Center poll released in late July shows voters consistently want politicians to talk about the economy, with 29% saying it’s an important issue, followed by 9% focused on ethics and reform, 7% on immigration, 5% on healthcare, 4% on foreign policy and 4% on the president. 

Democrats held a slight advantage at the time of the poll, with 43% of those surveyed saying they would vote for a candidate from that party while 37% said they were likely to support a Republican. The remaining 20% said they hadn’t decided or would vote for someone else. 

The poll showed that while voters agreed more with Republicans on crime and immigration, Democrats held an advantage on education, healthcare and environmental policy. 

Neither party outpaced the other on economic issues, with 37% saying they agree with Democrats, 36% saying they believe Republicans handle that issue better and 25% saying neither. 

Dems have enthusiasm edge

Emory University’s Peskowitz said many people will cast ballots based on party affiliation, though swing voters will decide based on the specifics of each candidate. And this year, that will likely be their economic policies. 

“What voters often do if they have negative perceptions of the economy or don’t feel great about the economy, they punish the incumbent presidential party,” he said. “The other important thing to keep in mind is enthusiasm of partisans and whether they’re willing to turn out to vote or not.” 

That trend may favor Democrats, since Republicans have held the House, Senate and White House for two years. And midterm elections almost always see the president’s party lose seats in Congress. 

Michael Traugott, a research professor emeritus at the University of Michigan’s Ford School of Public Policy, said the primary elections during the last several months have shown somewhat more enthusiasm among Democrats than Republicans based on turnout.

“And we’ll have to see how much of this, you know, carries over to the fall,” he said. 

What the president says about Republican candidates in toss-up states and whether Trump decides to endorse those candidates could also become a factor, Traugott said. 

“This is not necessarily the positive advantage that it’s been in past elections because he has historically low approval ratings,” he said. 

“Mike Rogers is going to have to think a fair amount about whether or not he brings Donald Trump into the state of Michigan to campaign with him. And I think that this could be true in other states,” Traugott added. “I’m not sure that Susan Collins would like to have Donald Trump come in to campaign with her.”

Rogers, a former GOP congressman who ran unsuccessfully for a Senate seat two years ago, and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, former executive director of the Detroit Health Department, are both slated to appear on the ballot after winning their primaries. 

Democratic candidates will spend the next few months trying to sway voters frustrated or disillusioned with their party’s current focus, despite that being an uphill climb, Traugott said. 

“I think the pull of party identification is still very strong. So if there are people who voted for Trump in ‘24, say, and are unhappy with what’s happened since, I don’t think they’re going to switch to Democrats. It’s more likely they won’t vote for Senate,” he said. “Depending upon other things going on in their state, they could even stay home. So the consequence would be more in terms of turnout or not marking the ballot for the Senate race than it would be voting for a Democrat.”

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