Alaska US House race now ‘Lean Republican’ instead of ‘Likely Republican’ at Cook Political Report

Left-leaning poll firm also shows a closer race with Republican incumbent Nick Begich III still ahead of independent challenger Bill Hill

Alaska Republican U.S. Rep. Nick Begich, left, and independent Bill Hill are pictured ahead of a U.S. House debate on Wednesday, Oct. 14, 2026, in Anchorage, Alaska. (AP Photo/Becky Bohrer)

By Mark Sabbatini

Juneau Independent

Alaska’s U.S. House race has tightened a bit at an election forecasting website and a poll by a left-leaning survey company, but first-term Republican Nick Begich III is still expected to defeat independent challenger Bill Hill in the Nov. 3 midterm elections.

The Cook Political Report, in the latest of many shifts of races away from Republicans, now rates the race for Alaska’s long U.S. House seat "Lean Republican" instead of the previous "Likely Republican." A second major election forecasting website, Sabato's Crystal Ball, still rates the race "Likely Republican" as of Friday.

Two recent polls showed Begich defeating Hill by 5% to 6% after ranked choice tabulation of the four candidates on the ballot. A third more recent poll by Data For Progress puts Begich’s margin of victory at 2%. However, The New York Times, while listing that poll result at its tracking website, stated "This pollster does not meet our criteria for selected pollsters." The media bias website AllSides rates Data For Progress a left-leaning think tank/policy group.

Begich got 44.6% of the vote and Hill 32.5% in the Aug. 18 primary, but the latter got a boost when Democrat Matt Schultz — who received 8.1% — suspended his candidacy and endorsed Hill.

The other two candidates on the ballot are Eric Hafner — a registered Democrat in federal prison who received 3.8% of the vote — and Libertarian Jim McDermott of Fairbanks.

Political action committees backing Hill are urging Alaskans not to vote for Hafner. Hill, however, during a candidate forum last week declined to say if he would caucus with Democrats if elected.

Republicans are widely expected to lose control of the U.S. House in the midterm elections and analysts are forecasting a growing chance the Senate may flip as well.

• Contact Mark Sabbatini at editor@juneauindependent.com or (907) 957-2306.