Gasline update: Dunleavy tells policy group it will cost ‘upwards of $65, $70 billion’; stalemate lingers

Statement made in June exceeds official estimate of $44.5B to $54.5B; his office says he misspoke, but similar amounts — and higher — have been referenced by officials

Gov. Mike Dunleavy speaks about gasline legislation during a press conference at the Alaska State Capitol on July 16, 2026. (Mark Sabbatini / Juneau Independent)

By Mark Sabbatini

Juneau Independent

Skeptics questioning cost estimates of the Alaska LNG Project got a bit of fuel for their fight with a recording of Gov. Mike Dunleavy telling an interviewer it will cost "upwards of $65, $70 billion," rather than the oft-cited official range of $44.5 billion to $54.5 billion. A spokesperson for the governor says he misspoke.

The remark didn’t get much reaction from the two legislators presiding over brief floor sessions in the House and Senate early this week, part of a third special session this summer on the gasline. His administration has already quoted a potential price exceeding $90 billion and the project is mired in a legislative stalemate due to a range of unresolved questions.

"That's been my estimate for months," Sen. Jesse Kiehl, D-Juneau, who presided over the Senate’s technical floor session Tuesday, when asked about the $65 billion to $70 billion statement. He said the figure comes from private cost estimates and inflation, since the roughly $45 billion bottom-end figure has been cited by prospective developers for the past decade.

House Speaker Bryce Edgmon, I-Dillingham, said after presiding over a House technical floor session Monday he heard $65 billion estimates discussed during legislative committee meetings.

"The reality is that the cost overruns — inflation, or tariffs, or whatever — the cost overruns could easily drive that number north of any of those numbers," he said, adding he’s "heard anecdotally all kinds of numbers."

Kiehl said it won’t alter the fundamental debate about the gasline if a $65 billion to $70 billion estimate suddenly became the official one since "this project has always been economically challenged." "I think we’d have to rerun the numbers and look at that," he said. "But we've always been considering significant cost overrun risk…The facts are always important. I don't know if it's a qualitative change."

Dunleavy made the remark during an hour-long appearance at a June 10 Council on Foreign Relations event where he was interviewed by CNN’s Jim Sciutto about a range of resource-development issues involving Alaska. The governor was responding to a question about the fall election, stating "I think the next couple weeks will dictate some of that outcome, either in a positive manner or negative manner."

"For Alaska a lot of that will be dictated by the success and the movement of our gasline project, which right now is still moving forward," Dunleavy said. "That would be the largest non-recourse investment in the history of the world, upwards of 65, $70 billion for that project."

The remark at an East Coast event hosted by a foreign policy think tank seemingly escaped notice in Alaska until longtime report/columnist Dermot Cole, who has been openly critical of Dunleavy, published it at his website Reporting From Alaska on Sunday.

Jeff Turner, a spokesperson for Dunleavy, stated in an email to the Juneau Independent on Monday "the governor misspoke when he stated that number at the CFR."

Dunleavy has made the gasline his foremost issue for months, seeking passage of legislation providing large tax breaks to its developers and ordering three special sessions when the Legislature failed to pass a bill he considered acceptable. While there is widespread support among legislators for the gasline project, much of the pushback to the proposals from the governor are from lawmakers who say they aren’t getting sufficient and reliable information about its potential costs and profits.

The current official estimate was provided by Glenfarne Group LLC, which owns 75% of the project, a week before Dunleavy’s comments to the Council on Foreign Relations. Several days before that estimate was provided, Alaska Department of Revenue economist Dan Stickel told legislators there could be a "100% cost increase" to a long-cited $46 billion estimate.

Glenfarne, Dunleavy and supporters of the governor’s legislation say large-scale tax breaks are needed to make the project economically viable. A higher cost to the developers and operators means they will have to charge more for gas — potentially making it uncompetitive with other providers — and/or get further assistance from the state.

Timothy Fitzpatrick, a Glenfarne spokesperson, told the Juneau Independent this week the $44.5 billion to $54.5 billion estimate remains the official one. He did not directly respond to whether a cost range of $65 billion to $70 billion has been discussed with the governor or other lawmakers.

Dunleavy has not yet introduced a bill for legislators to consider during the current special session, and the House and Senate are again scheduled to meet for technical sessions on Friday when no official action on bills can occur. The 30-day limit for the special session ends Aug. 25 — a week after the Aug. 18 primary in which all 40 House seats and half of the 20 Senate seats are on the ballot.

A three-hour panel discussion among advocates of the project hosted by the Alaska Gasline Caucus is scheduled from 9 a.m. to noon at the Anchorage Legislative Information Office. It will be available online at Gavel Alaska.

• Contact Mark Sabbatini at editor@juneauindependent.com or (907) 957-2306.