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Glacial flood of 2026 peaks at 14.7 ft., lowest in 4 years; little impact in protected neighborhoods
Mendenhall River crests well below initial forecast; short-term preventative measures credited for lack of damage and injuries
By Ellie Ruel, Jasz Garrett and Mark Sabbatini
Juneau Independent
The lowest peak river level in four years from an August glacial lake outburst flood, plus minimal reported damage to homes, resulted in a collective sigh of relief among Juneau residents and officials on Thursday.
The Mendenhall River crested at about 2:15 p.m. Thursday at 14.7 feet, far below last year’s record of 16.65 feet, according to National Weather Service Juneau. It was also well below initial forecasts of 16.1 to 16.6 feet after an outburst flood from Suicide Basin began Tuesday afternoon.
A year ago residents on Meander Way were paddling boats to get to homes that have sustained significant flood damage the past three years. This year a cul-de-sac at one end of the winding street was mostly dry, with Kevin Tillotson moving a few items in his puddled backyard.
“I wouldn’t call this flooding,” he said. “It’s not going into my crawl space. It’s just in my yard.”
Previous floods have resulted in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers deploying walls of HESCO barriers, about 40 industrial pumps and other protective measures in neighborhoods.
“We have actually been very pleased with the way the city has worked with us,” said Amanda Ryder, who at about 3 p.m. was sitting on her back porch overlooking the HESCO barriers between her home on Killewich Drive and the Mendenhall River. “I feel like the contractors as well as the city employees have been very sensitive to our input and what we want, and they've done their best to accommodate people.”
No reports of injuries or serious damage
A preliminary assessment of 133 at-risk properties Thursday shows 12 sustained minor levels of water intrusion, with about 220 more properties set to be evaluated Friday, according to Ryan O’Shaughnessy, Juneau emergency program manager.
“There were no serious injuries, emergency evacuations of homes, or really any other critical emergency situations,” he said during a press conference held Thursday evening by local, state and federal flood response officials.
O’Shaughnessy said a self-reporting tool is available on CBJ’s website, where residents can upload photos and records of flood-related damage.
About 1,900 homes were in evacuation zones, twice as many as last year, due to damage in hundreds of residences cumulatively during the past three years. More than three dozen homes were damaged or destroyed when a 2023 flood cresting at 14.97 feet caused severe riverbank erosion. Nearly 300 homes were damaged during the 2024 flood that peaked at 15.99 feet, prompting an initial wall of HESCO barriers that resulted in about 50 homes sustaining damage when the 2025 flood crested at 16.65 feet.
The HESCO barriers — reinforced and heightened this year to withstand an 18-foot flood — sustained two tree strikes and one instance of barrier lean, all a short distance south of the Brotherhood Bridge, said Denise Koch, the city’s public works director. She said drones provided by state transportation officials played a crucial role in monitoring conditions along the river.
“It is a huge, huge advantage to be able to get that level of coverage,” she said. “Anytime we would receive a comment or a question from the public, where there was a concern about a particular area, we could quickly direct the drone to go to that area and we could review and monitor the drones in a way that's much, much faster than we ever would have been able to do on foot.”
This year’s flood was expected to be higher and peak earlier — with a forecast Tuesday night calling for a crest up to 16.6 feet at roughly 7 a.m. Thursday. But the forecast height diminished and the predicted time got later through early Thursday afternoon.
The reasons for the lower crest are still being determined, but a lower rate of water release from the basin and the river being at a lower level at the start of the flood compared to last year appear to be factors, said Aaron Jacobs, the senior service hydrologist at the National Weather Service Juneau, in an interview about an hour before the river crested.
"The mass that we saw this year per-hour change was 2,000 cubic feet per second," he said. "In comparison, last year we saw about 3,200 to 3,300 cfs increase per hour for multiple hours."
The Mendenhall River was at about four feet when this year’s glacial lake outburst flood began Tuesday afternoon, compared to more than nine feet last year, when an atmospheric river occurred shortly beforehand.
Officials at Thursday night’s press briefing emphasized there is more work to do evaluating this year’s flood, including damage to HESCO barriers that need repairs and how protective measures can be improved looking ahead to next year’s flood.
“We will start that work tomorrow,” said Koch.
Even without HESCO barriers, the neighborhood of View Drive was mostly dry this year, thanks to their own efforts and the lower crest, according to residents who stayed and those returning Thursday. During last year’s flood, several homes on the street suffered major flood damage.
Randy Hurtte was waiting for the floodwater to recede enough on Thursday afternoon following the 2:15 p.m. crest so he could drive back to check on his house. Hurtte, his wife and his dog evacuated to a friend’s house Wednesday night.
Last year, the entire first floor of their house was flooded, leaving only an upstairs bedroom untouched. On Thursday, Hurtte said there was no water inside the house or garage. He said he still had to check inside his crawl space.
Hurtte said it was a close call, though, guessing that if the flood had crested six or 12 inches higher, it would have been a different story.
“Can go fishing now instead of working on the house,” he said.
His neighbor Emily Rosenfeld felt similarly and had plans out on the water this weekend instead of cleanup.
“I think that often the worst part for us is just kind of the anticipation of the event every year,” she said.
Her property, which has two separate buildings, was first impacted in 2023 with about six inches of water inside.
“One is our main house, which has thankfully never been touched with the flooding, but our second structure is a two-story garage, and the first story of the garage has flooded every year since 2023,” Rosenfeld said. “It didn't for the first time this year, actually. So it's significant. It didn't even get to the level of our garage at all this year. So we didn't need to use the sump pumps this year.”
She said she was hopeful for a lower crest due to the dry weather and now she’s hoping to continue celebrating the sun with the start of the king crab season on Friday.
Neighbors Doug Smith and Malachi Thorington said neither of their homes were flooded, and measurements showed the water was about three feet lower than last year on their properties near the Mendenhall River. Smith added his garage was inundated with about a foot of water.
“At least this year for once, they overestimated, and we're all super happy,” Thorington said. “I was braced for another foot higher this year. I think everybody stayed dry and we got the whole week back.”
At the beginning of View Drive closest to the Back Loop Bridge, which reopened Thursday evening, Mike Babcock said his berm held and no water inundated his home. Babcock’s house hasn’t flooded in the past.
He said with the amount of money he invested and prep work that went into preparing for a higher crest this year, he almost felt disappointed. Babcock said he was prepared with a trash pump he ended up not needing since the berm held.
“Just thankful,” Babcock added with a laugh. “I thought it was going to be more exciting, but that's okay. I'm just really glad for all the people that didn't get water in their house.”
He expressed hope that downstream residents fared the same.
Relief after riding out the crest
As floodwaters began to recede, residents on Meander Way were pulling in flood mitigation measures and returning to their homes.
Sitting in a sunny spot in front of his garage, Daniel Michrowski waited out the crest.
“We're really thankful that things lined up pretty perfectly this year as opposed to last year,” Michrowski said. “The fact that the river was so low, it was so dry, the river and the lake were low, and we're just fortunate that it's not testing the system as much.”
In 2024, Michrowski’s crawl space and laundry room flooded, and last year water came up his driveway. His wife and dog evacuated before Thursday’s crest.
“I stayed, and so that was part of our plan,” he said. “Just in case there was seepage or leakage, I could pump it back over.”
A wall of plywood covered in plastic sheeting and secured with sandbags surrounded him and his house.
“We're cautiously optimistic that we've survived another year,” Michrowski said.
Jeff Rud was about to start stripping the plastic and sandbags from his garage door. He stayed through the flood.
“It never came up as high,” he said. “Didn’t even touch the barriers.”
Despite having a riverfront house, Rud has never been flooded before, but has had water creep up his driveway. He said neighbors around him saw some ponding and seepage from the barriers.
Down the street, Melissa Browne said she also rode out the crest. While some water pooled in her backyard, Browne said this year was the driest her property has been during the flood.
“This is actually the first year that we stayed,” Browne said. “With it happening later on in the day, and the time frame kept getting pushed back, we decided that we would stay the night last night, and then kind of see how things rolled today. We had go bags ready, just in case, to leave, but we never felt the need to.”
Browne said a neighbor’s camera situated on the river side of the barriers allowed her to watch the water rise, reaching only two feet up the first barrier. Last year, they were stacked two high, and nearly overtopped.
“I think there was just so much adrenaline going that you're just wanting to know what's happening and just watching that water rise,” she said. “And then it's just immediate relief.”
Unlike previous years, Browne said she only saw about six inches of water in her backyard approaching her porch.
“As soon as the water came in, we called the flood hotline, CBJ's crews were here quickly to get the pumps running, and they’ve been running the whole time,” she said.
Last year, the Brownes’ garage and crawl space flooded, and three feet of water pooled in their garage in 2024.
“This is the first year that we're dry, other than a little bit of water in the backyard,” Browne said. “We're feeling good.”
Among the residents who did heed the city’s evacuation advisory was Victoria Porter, a resident of a condominium on Glacier Highway near the river. Porter was among 15 residents who spent Wednesday night at the shelter on the Floyd Dryden campus. She also brought her two dogs, Elvis and Gracie, who stayed in an adjacent space for pets.
"I didn't want to worry. I just wanted to rest," she said, adding she hoped to return home by tonight.
A total of 15 people, two dogs and a cat stayed at the shelter overnight, said Britta Tonnessen, the community disaster program manager for the American Red Cross in Southeast Alaska. Seven people stayed at the shelter last year the night before the flood crested.
• Contact Ellie Ruel at ellie.ruel@juneauindependent.com. Contact Jasz Garrett at jasz@juneauindependent.com or 907-723-9356. Contact Mark Sabbatini at editor@juneauindependent.com or (907) 957-2306.
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