Governor’s race goes from ‘Likely Republican’ to ‘Lean Democrat’ in one month at Cook Political Report

Latest rating shift away from Republicans in Alaska races comes on day President Trump visits Wasilla to boost party’s candidates

Laura McDonnell, left, moderates a gubernatorial candidate forum between, from left to right, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, Bernadette Wilson and Dave Bronson at the Baranof Hotel on Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2026. (Mark Sabbatini / Juneau Independent)

By Mark Sabbatini

Juneau Independent

A swing toward Democrats in Alaska’s major races continued Tuesday when the governor’s race was switched to "Lean Democrat" by The Cook Political Report, the third change by the ratings website since it classified the contest as "Likely Republican" a month ago.

An analysis at the election ratings website notes former state lawmaker Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, a Democrat, is polling far ahead of three Republican candidates — Bernadette Wilson, Dave Bronson and Treg Tayor — in the ranked choice contest.

"Other than Iowa, Alaska may be Democrats’ best opportunity to flip a governors’ mansion in a red state," Jessica Taylor, an editor for the site, wrote in her analysis. "Former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (colloquially known as JKT) benefits from being the lone Democrat in the four-person field and is running comfortably ahead of conservative activist Bernadette Wilson and two other Republicans."

“The concern for Republicans is that, amid a divided GOP field, Republican voters will only choose one of their candidates on their ranked-choice ballots rather than ranking multiple options, allowing Kreiss-Tomkins to consolidate a majority."

The change is similar to rating shifts for the U.S. Senate, which have also shifted from favoring Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan at Cook Political Report as well as the election forecasting website Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The latter rates Sullivan’s race against Democrat Mary Peltola as "Leans Democratic," having shifted it left twice since a "Leans Republican" rating in Juneau. The Cook Political Report rates the race a "Toss Up," a shift made in June from "Lean Republican."

Alaska last elected a Democratic governor in 1998 and a Democratic U.S. senator in 2008.

The shifts in Alaska also mirror forecasts and polling across the United States showing Republican candidates are struggling in areas that historically have been favorable toward the party.

Those struggles are widely attributed to President Donald Trump, whose approval ratings have plummeted due to cost-of-living and other concerns. He has responded with a series of campaign appearances in states that traditionally vote Republican, including a visit to Wasilla on Tuesday following a visit by Vice President JD Vance to Fairbanks last week.

Both ratings websites classify Alaska’s U.S. House race as likely Republican, with incumbent Rep. Nick Beigch III polling well ahead of independent challenger Bill Hill.

• Contact Mark Sabbatini at editor@juneauindependent.com or (907) 957-2306.