Peltola-Sullivan moves to ‘Leans Democratic’ at rating site, while new poll shows her lead shrinking

Conflicting surveys, predictions and headlines mark U.S. Senate race in Alaska that may decide party control with less than two weeks before voting starts

Former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola, D-Alaska, and current U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska. (Official congressional portraits)

By Mark Sabbatini

Juneau Independent

Regardless of whether you support Republican U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan or Democratic challenger Mary Peltola, there’s been recent developments to provide optimism about that person’s chances.

One of two major prediction websites changed its rating of the race Tuesday to "Leans Democratic," the second change after it shifted to "Toss-Up" instead of "Leans Republican" in June. It’s the first time in 18 years that Sabato's Crystal Ball, based at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, has given a favorable rating to a Democrat in a U.S. Senate race in Alaska.

"Of the Democrats’ red state Senate targets, Alaska may be the most promising," the forecast website stated in an analysis of the race Tuesday.

The website notes Peltola topped Sullivan by 8% in the Aug. 18 primary and multiple surveys since have shown her with a solid lead. It also notes The New York Times published an article Sept. 23 raising questions about her treatment of staff and other people, but polling by that newspaper shows "this story may not have ‘legs.’"

"In both of their polls, about 50% of likely voters had at least a somewhat favorable view of her, while Sullivan’s numbers in that category actually sunk from 47% to 42%," the analysis by Sabato's Crystal Ball states. "Alaska voters have also seemed to look past the stormy tempers of some other members that they have reelected over the years."

However, some recent surveys show the race is much closer to the "Toss-Up" rating that one other major forecast website — The Cook Political Report — still has as of Wednesday.

Results of a poll conducted Oct. 1-3 by Alaska Survey Research released Wednesday show Peltola with a 2% lead over Sullivan after ranked choice votes are tallied. That compares to a 3.8% edge in a survey by the same company about four weeks ago.

But there are caveats to the findings: the survey company’s owner, Ivan Moore, has publicly declared Sullivan "needs to be voted OUT." Also, the current survey’s margin of error is 3%, making the race a statistical tie.

Moore could not immediately be reached Wednesday morning for comment. In a post at his company’s Facebook page on Wednesday he noted "Sullivan has not led an ASR survey dating back to the summer of 2025."

"The race is very polarized and locked in place — and comes down to turnout, in the early voting phase and on Nov. 3," Moore wrote.

Two other Republican candidates in the race, namesake challenger Dan J. Sullivan and Gerald Heikes get 5% and 3%, respectively, in first-choice votes. But Moore notes that when subsequent choices are implemented in the ranked choice process "their cumulative vote splits fairly evenly between Peltola and Sullivan," meaning the leader in first-choice votes will likely win the election.

Two other recent polls conducted in late September cited by The New York Times at its tracking page show Sen. Sullivan leading Peltola 47%-46%.

Various nationwide polls, as well as Sabato's Crystal Ball and The Cook Political Report, are stating there is an increasing likelihood of Democrats taking control of both the House and Senate during the final two years of President Donald Trump’s second term.

The Trump administration is responding by campaigning in numerous states where Republicans have traditionally fared well, including a visit by Vice President JD Vance to Fairbanks on Monday and Trump declaring he will visit Alaska this month.

Early voting in the Nov. 3 midterm elections begins in Alaska on Oct. 19.

• Contact Mark Sabbatini at editor@juneauindependent.com or (907) 957-2306.