Peltola, Begich, Kreiss-Tomkins lead statewide races, AARP Alaska poll finds

Peltola tops Sullivan 53%-47% after RCV tally, Begich tops Hill 57%-43%, Kreiss-Tomkins tops Wilson 55%-45%, according to survey of 800 likely voters Sept. 8-11

People line up at the State Office Building to vote in Alaska’s primary election on Aug. 18, 2026. (Mark Sabbatini / Juneau Independent)

By Mark Sabbatini

Juneau Independent

There are clear leaders in Alaska’s races for governor, U.S. House and U.S. Senate, although the latter is tighter than the others, according to a survey published Thursday by AARP Alaska.

The survey of 800 randomly selected likely voters between Sept. 8-11 finds Democratic challenger Mary Peltola leading incumbent U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan 46%-41% in initial balloting and 53%-47% after ranked choice reallocations occur. That is more favorable to Peltola than a poll published Sept. 2 by Alaska Survey Research that found the race statistically tied.

"Peltola has sizable advantages among voters under 50, especially those 18-34," an AARP summary of its results states. "Sullivan keeps it close thanks to his lead among voters 50+. Independents, who make up about half of this likely voter sample, vote for Peltola by 32-points initially and 38-points after RCV reallocation."

Of note in the AARP poll is two other Republican challengers on the ballot with a total of 7% of respondents: Petersburg resident Dan J. Sullivan at 4% and Gerald Heikes at 3%. The poll, mirroring a decision by the Alaska Division of Elections, does not list Dan J. Sullivan’s Republican party affiliation after Dunleavy administration officials claim his candidacy was a sham meant to confuse voters.

The race is one of the most-watched in the country since it may be decisive in determining which party controls the Senate during the final two years of President Donald Trump’s second term. The Cook Political Report and Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball both rate the race a toss-up as of Thursday.

Peltola won the Aug. 18 open primary by more than 8% over Sullivan, but analysts noted she also got a majority of votes in the U.S. House primary in 2024 before ultimately losing her seat to Republican challenger Nick Begich III.

The governor’s race has a clearer leader — but still significant elements of uncertainty — with Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins prevailing 55%-45% over Republican Bernadette Wilson in a ranked choice contest. The poll shows Kreiss-Tomkins getting 40% on the initial ballot as the only Democrat against three Republicans, followed by Wilson at 20%, Dave Bronson at 14% and Treg Taylor at 7%.

"Kreiss-Tomkins wins both younger and older voters, though younger voters by a wider margin, in both the initial and RCV ballots," an AARP summary notes. "Wilson leads Bronson and Taylor out of the gate among both Republicans and Independents, which gets her to the final two after Taylor’s voters split between Bronson and her."

Reluctance to participate in ranked choice voting — the repeal of which is again on the ballot as a proposition after voters narrowly voted to keep it in 2024 — may be the deciding factor, according to AARP.

"A sizable 25% are not ranking Kreiss-Tomkins or Wilson at the end and they voted for Trump in 2024 by a 41 point margin," the summary notes. "These voters choosing a side could significantly alter the race."

The most decisive results are in the U.S. House race, giving Begich a 57%-43% win over independent Bill Hill when ranked choice votes are tallied. Begich gets 45% on the initial ballot, followed by Hill at 31%, New York prison inmate Eric Hafner at 9% and Libertarian candidate James McDermott at 3%.

"Begich has advantages across gender, and race/ethnicity lines, with voters without college degrees picking him by a big margin and college+ closely split," AARP’s summary notes.

• Contact Mark Sabbatini at editor@juneauindependent.com or (907) 957-2306.