Peltola leads by 0.29% after election night; she gained 3% in 2024 and 2% in 2022 final first-vote counts

With Dan J. Sullivan currently at 1.7%, an increase by Peltola similar to past elections may not be enough to prevent efforts by Republicans to keep her from taking office

Alaska Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola, left, speaks at an election night event Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in Anchorage. At right, Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, speaks at an election night event Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in Anchorage. (AP Photos by Lindsey Wasson and Mark Thiessen)

By Mark Sabbatini

Juneau Independent

This story has been updated to correct the vote tallies for Mary Peltola and Dan S. Sullivan, which originally were reversed.

Who gets the most votes in Alaska’s extremely close U.S. Senate race likely won’t be known for a couple of weeks, as widely predicted. Who is officially accepted as the winner may take a lot longer.

Democratic challenger Mary Peltola leads Republican incumbent Dan S. Sullivan by 0.29% after the first tally of votes on election night, with the Associated Press estimating about 74% of ballots cast have been counted. But many of those remaining are from rural districts expected to favor Peltola, similar to her U.S. House campaigns where she gained about 2% after election night in 2022 and 3% in 2024.

Peltola has 48.02% of the vote, Sullivan 47.73%, Republican Gerald Heikes 2.25% and undeclared Dan J. Sullivan 1.68% as of early Wednesday, according to the Alaska Division of Elections.

There are numerous uncertainties about the tallies for the candidates that will be updated with mail, rural and other votes cast by Election Day that are processed during the next 14 days. But there is a good chance neither Dan S. Sullivan nor Peltola will get a majority of first-choice votes, which means the ranked choice process will be used to determine a winner.

"The results are not going to be fast," Peltola told reporters on Wednesday morning. But, she added, "Alaskans are patient. We just want to make sure the folks [in] the Lower 48 know it won't be hours, it won't be days, it will be weeks."

Perhaps the biggest uncertainty is what will occur if Peltola has a lead in first-choice votes that is smaller than the number of votes Dan J. Sullivan receives. President Donald Trump and Gov. Mike Dunleavy, and agencies the two Republican leaders oversee, are pursuing actions seeking to halt certification of the election and possibly bring criminal charges against people associated with those two campaigns.

Those include a lawsuit by the U.S. Department of Justice seeking to halt certification of the election in such a scenario that is in the appeals process after being dismissed by an Anchorage federal judge. DOJ and Alaska law enforcement agencies are also pursuing criminal probes into allegations the Peltola campaign and other Democrats recruited Dan J. Sullivan and other spoiler candidates to confuse voters.

Peltola and others targeted by the investigations have denied the allegations. Legal experts have also noted such tactics, known as ballot stacking and practiced in various forms, are common in campaigns and generally legal. The Alaska Supreme Court overturned an attempt by the state Division of Elections to remove Dan J. Sullivan from the ballot this summer based on the same allegations.

Trump said on election night and Dan S. Sullivan said on Sunday they would accept the results of the elections, which saw a surge by Democrats that resulted in them taking over solid majorities in both chambers of Congress. However, Dan S. Sullivan on Tuesday told reporters "We are witnessing the biggest election cheating scandal in the history of the state of Alaska, one of the, maybe one of the biggest in the U.S. Senate’s history."

Both the legal action and criminal investigation are ongoing as of Wednesday morning, and some Republicans in Congress have suggested Peltola may not be seated even if she is officially declared the winner.

• Contact Mark Sabbatini at editor@juneauindependent.com or (907) 957-2306.