Primary takeaways: Peltola has solid lead on Sen. Sullivan, governor’s race may depend on who is willing to drop out

Mark Sabbatini
10 hours ago
6 min read

Nick Begich III has 46%-39% lead over combined major opponents; Democrats positioned to gain seats in the Legislature; proposition limiting donations gets dominant win

By Mark Sabbatini

Juneau Independent

The major takeaways of Alaska’s primary election as of early Wednesday morning, with a solid majority of votes cast seemingly counted:

• Mary Peltola is ahead of Sen. Dan S. Sullivan by more than 5% and would still be ahead if all of the 2.44% voting for Dan J. Sullivan were confused.

• Two Democrats are dominating individual results in the governor’s race with nearly 42% between them, and there has been discussion of a deal where one drops out and supports the other. So the Republicans' chances of winning in November may depend on if enough top-finishing conservatives withdraw to allow a moderate challenger who would siphon votes from a Democrat to be one of the final four general election candidates.

• Republican Rep. Nick Begich III is living up to the Cook Political Report’s "Likely Republican" rating with 46% compared to the combined 39% by independent Bill Hill and Democrat Matt Schultz, the latter of whom has withdrawn and is supporting Hill.

• Ballot Measure 1, reimposing limits on campaign contributions to individuals and groups, passed easily.

• The Alaska Beacon reported the statewide legislative races were favorable for Democrats: "No incumbent Democrat trailed a Republican on election day, but several incumbent Republicans trailed Democrats."

Returns from the primary election by the Alaska Division of Elections as of 2 a.m. Wednesday are for 132,713 ballots representing 22.08% of the state’s registered voters in 378 of 403 precincts. About 193,000 ballots were cast during the midterm primary in 2022.

This year’s primary results will be tallied until Aug. 28, with updates periodically released by state officials, with final unofficial results announced on that date. Certification of results is expected by Aug. 31. The top four finishers in all candidate races will advance to the Nov. 3 general election.

Governor: JKT and Bernadette Wilson positioned for faceoff

First it needs to be clear if Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (currently at 21.67%) or Tom Begich (20.1%) — both former state legislators — is the top Democratic finisher. Both candidates have acknowledged the next likely step is discussions about a deal that involves one supporting the other.

Similar discussions are expected among a more crowded field of Republicans who finished with a higher combined total than the two Democrats.

A key aspect of the race’s dynamics was provided by Tom Begich, the uncle of Nick Begich III, who told The Alaska Landmine on Tuesday night that the combined support of himself, Kreiss-Tomkins, independent former Gov. Bill Walker and moderate Republican Click Bishop total well over 50% — enough to beat a conservative such as Anchorage businesswoman Bernadette Wilson if the other like-minded Republicans join to support her.

The leading non-Democratic candidates are Wilson with 10.47%, former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson with 8.42%, former state Attorney General Treg Taylor at 7.45%, former state Sen. Bishop at 7.14%, former state revenue commissioner Adam Crum at 5.69%, former state Sen. Shelley Hughes at 5.58% and Walker at 4.43%.

If the second-place Democrat drops out, that means Bronson or Taylor would also have to drop out for Bishop to make the final four. Both of them, along with Crum and Hughes, would have to drop out for Walker to also be on the general election ballot.

US Senate: Sen. Sullivan sets underdog tone as Peltola finishes strong

Two-term incumbent Dan S. Sullivan used an Election Night speech to portray himself as a "grassroots" candidate who will face a better-funded challenger this fall, although both his campaign and Peltola’s are being heavily supported by out-of-state donors.

"D.C. Democrats don't have an agenda or a vision for Alaska," the senator told his Election Night audience. "They have a target on Alaska and we're not going to let them do it."

Peltola’s current lead over Sullivan of 48.04%-42.84% increased as more results came in and, as with her past U.S. House races, that margin is likely to grow since many of the ballots remaining to be counted are from remote areas where she has received strong support. In her Election Night speech, she matched the incumbent by taking a combative tone against her main opponent.

"Dan Sullivan, every single vote, votes along with corporate greed," she said. "He is there for every fat cat in the nation.”

A poll released on Monday by Alaska Survey Research showed Dan J. Sullivan, a retired Petersburg teacher, with about 5% of support among respondents, and Peltola and Dan S. Sullivan tied at 44% each. The Petersburg challenger is well behind that showing, but far enough ahead of 13 other Senate candidates to be essentially assured of a spot in the top four for the general election.

Cook Political Report rates the race as a "toss up" between Peltola and Dan S. Sullivan, and it is among a handful of seats considered potentially decisive in which party controls the Senate during the final two years of President Donald Trump’s second term. Republican officials have accused Dan J. Sullivan of being a sham candidate trying to confuse voters and it was revealed Monday that the Trump-led U.S. Department of Justice has issued grand jury subpoenas as part of an investigation into the Petersburg resident’s candidacy.

US House: Begich has solid, not insurmountable, lead heading into fall

Nick Begich, a first-term incumbent who defeated Peltola in 2024, will face a lesser-known main challenger in Hill this fall — but also now has a record the congressman will tout and his opponent will attack.

The incumbent is currently well ahead of Hill 46%-31%, but Schultz at 8% has withdrawn from the race and is endorsing Hill.

"We've been doing a lot of hard work in D.C.," Nick Begich told The Alaska Landmine during its Election Night livestream. "We've been delivering wins for Alaskans, and this is true whether you're a rural Alaskan or an urban Alaskan, whether you're in Southeast or all the way up to the top of the (North Slope). My job is to represent everybody, and that's what we tried to do and I think it's reflected tonight in the results."

Hill, in an Election Night statement, declared “Alaskans are sick and tired of paying more for healthcare, gas, and groceries so that Nick Begich can give himself and his billionaire buddies another tax break."

An additional factor if the race narrows is Eric Hafner, a New York prison inmate running as a Democrat, is a solid fourth in the primary with 3.8% of the vote and has already been certified previously to compete in a general election in the state.

Alaska Legislature: Democratic-led majority poised to pick up seats

Only five of 50 legislative races had more than four candidates, so nearly all of the contests were essentially a measuring point for how campaigns are faring heading into fall.

In Juneau’s House District 3, for example, incumbent Democrat Andi Story is well ahead of Republican challenger Annette Kreitzer, a former state commissioner and Haines borough manager, 69.84%-30.16%. Both will advance to the Nov. 3 general election.

Story said she is encouraged by her showing so far.

"I really feel like I have good rapport with many of the people in my district, and I feel I have a good understanding of the importance education is to them (and) on the importance of keeping our young people in our communities," she said. "I really feel like I am the right candidate for this district and I think that the results showed that."

Attempts to reach Keitzer on Wednesday were not successful as of mid-afternoon.

The House currently has a 21-member majority consisting mostly of Democrats and a 19-member Republican minority. The Senate has a 14-member majority that includes nine Democrats and a six-member Republican minority.

The Alaska Beacon noted a handful of House races held by Republicans where Democrats or independents were leading, including Denny Wells ahead by a slight margin against Republican Rep. Mia Costello in Anchorage, and nonpartisan candidate Brent Johnson with 55% of the vote against incumbent Republican Rep. Sarah Vance of Homer with 45%.

• Contact Mark Sabbatini at editor@juneauindependent.com or (907) 957-2306.