Confident Sen. Sullivan will win? Betting sites will pay a fortune if he does

Two sites rate Peltola a 99% favorite to win after Tuesday night’s results, meaning a $100 bet on the incumbent could result in a payoff of more than $9,000 if he wins

Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, speaks at an election night event Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in Anchorage. (AP Photo/Mark Thiessen)

By Mark Sabbatini

Juneau Independent

Plenty of people still believe Republican U.S. Sen. Dan S. Sullivan will defeat Democratic challenger Mary Peltola despite her growing, but still slim, lead as of Tuesday night, if they’re being truthful in their social media posts and other declarations. If they’re right there’s a fortune to be made at political betting websites.

Peltola is listed as a 99% favorite at Polymarket and 98.8% favorite at Kalshi as of 8 a.m. Wednesday. At PredictIt she is a 93% favorite to win a majority of first-choice ballots, eliminating the need for a ranked choice runoff.

At those odds, a $100 bet Peltola will lose would result in a $9,140 payout at Polymarket and $7,794.16 at Kalshi, according to their respective websites. Payouts are less than actual odds due to trading fees.

A screenshot shows betting odds at Polymarket for Alaska’s U.S. Senate race as of early Wednesday, Nov. 11, 2026.

Tuesday night’s results show Peltola with 48.79% of ballots tallied and Sullivan with 47.05% with an estimated 16% remaining to be counted — not enough of a lead for the Associated Press and other media outlets to project a winner of the race. However, Peltola’s lead has increased from 0.3% a week ago to 1.7% as of Tuesday and the remaining ballots are expected to continue to be favorable to her.

A statement by Sullivan campaign spokesperson Nate Adams on Wednesday declared "With tens of thousands of ballots still to be counted, there's a long way to go before every Alaskan's voice is heard. We thank the Division of Elections for their hard work and look forward to a complete and accurate count."

One favorable statistic so far for Sullivan is an analysis by the Alaska Beacon shows him gaining 3,066 votes and Peltola 2,160, a net gain of 906 for him, in a ranked choice runoff of ballots tallied so far. However, that isn’t enough to overcome Peltola’s lead and it excludes 9,909 ballots from rural Alaska precincts where ranked candidate data isn’t yet available.

Other possible wild cards are a lawsuit ordered by President Donald Trump seeking to halt certification of the election if Peltola narrowly wins, based on allegations her campaign recruited Petersburg resident Dan J. Sullivan to confuse votes; criminal investigations of the same allegations by federal and state officials; and Republicans in Congress who have suggested Peltola may not be seated if she wins.

A CBS News analysis published Tuesday found "the candidates who Kalshi markets favored won 95% of congressional or gubernatorial midterm races."

However, such markets are also receiving criticism and scrutiny in some quarters. ABC reported earlier this year Kalshi suspended accounts belonging to three congressional candidates who allegedly bet on their own races and Politico on Sunday reported that Democrats poised to retake control of both chambers of Congress are considering tighter regulation of political betting markets.

• Contact Mark Sabbatini at editor@juneauindependent.com or 907-957-2306.