JSD enrollment ‘historically lower now than ever before’; school board to revisit budget later this fall

3,673 students is 94 fewer than predicted; reallocation of elementary staff possible due to less per-student funding 

The Juneau Board of Education meets about declining enrollment during its regular meeting at Thunder Mountain Middle School on Tuesday, Sept. 8, 2026. (Jasz Garrett / Juneau Independent)

By Jasz Garrett

Juneau Independent

Shawn Arnold shared in a superintendent report on Tuesday evening the Juneau School District is below its projected enrollment for this school year. 

“It’s historically lower now than ever before,” he said.

As of Tuesday, K–12 enrollment is 3,673, which is 94 students below the district projection of a 3,767 average daily attendance (-2.5%), according to data from PowerSchool, the district’s student information provider. 

The fiscal year 2027 operating budget anticipated roughly $33 million from the state based on the projection, which also included 130 “intensive students.” Intensive students are defined as a student that needs a high level of individualized support and are separately counted from annual daily enrollment numbers.

Tuesday’s count of 3,673 and 128 intensive students puts the district’s state revenue for this year at about $29 million, which is $3.4 million less than expected when the district’s budget was passed this spring.

“Part of the good news is we are receiving a one-time funding,” Arnold said, noting this is expected to be about a $3.6 million boost in per-student funds. 

The Alaska Beacon reported $115 million from war-driven oil revenue will be distributed to school districts according to the state’s education funding formula, which is based on student enrollment counts in October. JSD is set to receive an estimated $514,000 in state energy relief funding in the coming weeks, Arnold said during Tuesday’s school board meeting.

With the one-time funding and current projected enrollment, Arnold said there is “only” an overall budget surplus of $731,827.

Arnold said he wanted to present these numbers before the Juneau Board of Education so that they could prepare. The school board is not required to revise the budget until November, after conducting a state-mandated count of students during 20 school days starting the fourth Friday of October.

“That’s when we’ll know what our final student count is after our 20-day official student count that we turn into the state,” he said. 

The district also needs to project to the state what the fiscal year 2028 enrollment number is by Nov. 5.

He said the district is observing a larger decline in elementary grades, but a slight increase in secondary school numbers. Arnold noted a positive was a boost in Thunder Mountain Middle School’s enrollment by 40 students. The district's largest single cohort, 346 students, is currently in sixth grade. High school enrollment remains stable.

Arnold also noted a slight increase in alternative options, including HomeBRIDGE, Juneau Community Charter School, Juneau Montessori School, and the Tlingit Culture, Language and Literacy program.

“As we have fewer kids, more kids are shifting over to the optional programs,” he said.

Enrollment decreased significantly during the 2020-2021 academic year as the COVID-19 pandemic led to a transition from in-person to online schooling, according to Juneau Economic Development Council's 2025 Economic Indicators and Outlook report. The enrollment for the 2025 to 2026 school year was 3,832, according to school board documents.

“As a result of this change and overall safety concerns, many parents switched their children to HomeBridge or other homeschooling programs,” the JEDC report states. “Enrollment totals only recovered by 212 during the 2021-2022 school year, displaying a lasting effect from the pandemic-induced decline. This decline is also likely related to the trend of steady decline in Juneau’s 0-19 aged population.”

Historic Average Daily Membership enrollment for the Juneau School District. (Screenshot from Juneau Board of Education Budget Public Forum slideshow for fiscal year 2027 preliminary budget)

Arnold said the lowest drop was surprisingly found in kindergarten numbers across schools. The incoming kindergarten enrollment sits at 188 students (down 51 from a year ago). 

“The best explanation — it may not be the correct explanation — is people are having fewer kids,” he said, adding a demographer will examine a live birth rate and project out five years. 

He showed the six elementary schools on a graph and their projected need for staff compared with the “actual need” based on updated enrollment counts presented Tuesday. 

A rolling document shows the projected number of staff that was budgeted for Juneau School District elementary schools; the actual need is what’s based on an updated enrollment count. Kax̲dig̲oowu Héen Elementary School is in the red due to having a budgeted full-time equivalent position that is unfilled. (Screenshot)

“The tough decision right now is three of our schools have FTE (full-time equivalent) that they are currently utilizing,” Arnold said. He said it’s a mismatch for what enrollment is now projected. 

An FTE references a full-time workload, but not necessarily performed by a single person, so two people working half-time would equate to one FTE.

Arnold said now that numbers are lower than projected, a question of reallocating staff arises.

“If we don’t balance our schools, if we don’t remove positions, it could expand that deficit,” he said. 

He said it’s not in policy, but has been common practice for the district in the past. Arnold said he was asking the board to balance equally or not at all.

“Following through with past practice is to reallocate the resources appropriately, so if we have teachers, if they’re unfilled, we don’t fill those positions — if we need to shift and reallocate a position, that we go ahead and reallocate those positions,” he said.

Arnold asked for the board’s guidance, recommending that a decision made now in response to a small surplus and decreasing enrollment means less disruption to the schools later on this fall.

“I think we all know we’re in a financial position where we would not be able to afford adding additional staff to a building,” said board vice president Elizabeth Siddon. “It’s why we have the hard conversations about PTR (pupil-to-teacher ratio) and none of us love what our PTR is. We would all love for it to be lower. We can’t afford it.”

Siddon pointed out there are still vacancies in elementary districtwide programs that the additional staff could support.

Board member Amber Frommherz asked if further tracking could be done for the optional programs’ pupil-to-teacher ratio. She said she was concerned about addressing the shifting of students from neighborhood schools to an optional program.

“Let’s also not regret the transitions between neighborhood schools to optional programs,” Frommherz said. 

Board member David Noon echoed Siddon’s thought, stating the school board cannot rely on “extra money as a source of additional staffing because we are looking at numbers potentially for next year that are going to contract our enrollment; even if it holds steady, we are going to be down from what we budgeted for this year.”

He said the board cannot use one-time funds to fill what could be viewed as a structural problem for revenue. 

Siddon asked if TMMS should be allocated an additional teacher due to being 40 students over projection with a pupil-teacher ratio of 30 to one. Arnold said the question would need to be revisited through a future request to the board.

The next regular school board meeting is scheduled for Oct. 27 at the TMMS library.

• Contact Jasz Garrett at jasz@juneauindependent.com or (907) 723-9356.