Sullivan takes slim lead over Peltola, Begich solidly leads Hill in early Alaska returns

Kreiss-Tomkins has 48.9% of votes cast so far against three Republicans in governor’s race; Ballot Measure 2 losing by 48.6%-51.4% tally; Story leads Kreitzer 65.1% to 34.7%

Interns and volunteers for Alaska Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola watch results come in on their phones during at an election night event for Peltola Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in Anchorage. (AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson)

By Mark Sabbatini

Juneau Independent

This is a developing story.

Republican U.S. Dan Sullivan moved narrowly ahead of Democratic challenger Mary Peltola in Election Night results that have seen notable shifts since polls closed, according to the Alaska Division of Elections.

The results come as major gains by Democrats nationwide will give them control both chambers of Congress.

Sullivan has 48.45% of votes counted so far, Peltola has 47.45%, Dan J. Sullivan Jr. 1.66% and Republican Gerald Heikes 2.13%.

Republican incumbent Nick Begich III — who trailed in the first batch of returns — is now ahead of independent Bill Hill, with respective tallies of 49.93% and 40.05%. Incarcerated federal inmate Eric Hafner, running as a Democrat, has about 7.2% and Libertarian Jim McDermott has 2.7%.

The 206,777 ballots tallied as of 10:48 p.m. — after polls closed at 8 p.m. — represent 34.15% of Alaska’s registered voters, meaning subsequent results may shift significantly. The Associated Press estimated about 66% of ballots cast have likely been counted as of late Tuesday night.

In past elections the results of between 75% and 90% of ballots have been known by midday Wednesday.

Dan S. Sullivan, in a brief speech to supporters at an Anchorage hotel ballroom Tuesday night, said “the night is young in Alaska."

"We’re seeing a blue wave in the Lower 48. That’s not very good," he said. "But we all know the great state of Alaska is different,” Sullivan said. “The polls have just closed, and we’re getting some preliminary results here. We’re seeing strong turnout in the Republican parts of the state. Very strong, actually.”

Alaska appears likely to elect its first Democratic governor since 1998, with Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins receiving about 49% of the initial vote, exceeding the combined total of Republicans Bernadette Wilson at 29.4%, Dave Bronson at 14.1% and Treg Taylor at 7.4%.

Election Night results also show Democrats in the Alaska State House may be able to form a ruling majority with allied independents, bypassing the need to seek Republicans willing to join a bipartisan coalition as existed during the past two years.

In Juneau’s only competitive state legislative race, incumbent Andi Story, D-Juneau, is well ahead of challenger Annette Kreitzer, R-Haines, with respective early tallies of 65.1% and 34.7%. The results for that race are with all 10 of the district's precincts reporting, but exclude mail and other ballots that may be counted after Election Day.

Juneau voters so far are also opting to retain Superior Court Judge Marianna Carpeneti, with 66.57% of ballots in favor. She faced an unusual election since the Alaska Judicial Council, in an apparent first, did not make a recommendation on whether voters her due to a mixed performance evaluation.

The results will see changes as additional ballots received or postmarked by Tuesday are counted during the next 15 days, after which ranked choice vote tabulation will occur for all races where no candidate has a majority. The results are scheduled to be certified Nov 25.

Alaska’s results came late into the night for people across the U.S. watching Democratic victories in most of the battleground races. The New York Times on Tuesday night reported the results "showed what polls have indicated for months — that voters are supremely dissatisfied with (President Donald Trump) and Republicans who have backed his agenda."

Democrats will have a Senate majority of six or more seats, according to the Times report. The party is also expected to have a resounding majority in the House.

Trump told the Times in an interview Tuesday night he was “absolutely willing to accept those results” and was prepared to work with Democrats. “We’ll, you know, look forward to working with them,” he said. “We’ll probably work something out.”

US Senate: Investigations could slow certification of race

Alaska’s U.S. Senate race was one of the most watched and most uncertain in the country, due to a spotlight on allegations Peltola’s campaign and Democratic operatives sought to recruit spoiler candidates, including retired Petersburg teacher Dan J. Sullivan, in the hope of confusing voters.

Trump and Gov. Mike Dunleavy are treating the tactics as a criminal matter, even though various forms of ballot stacking are common and legal, and questioned if the election will be certified and Peltola seated if she prevails in the vote. The U.S. Department of Justice has sent target letters to about 20 people as part of its criminal investigation while pursuing a lawsuit to halt certification of the election if Dan S. Sullivan loses by more votes than Dan J. Sullivan gets.

Peltola, her campaign, Democratic officials and Dan J. Sullivan have denied the allegations of ballot stacking.

US House: Victory by Hill would add to an evening of upsets nationwide

Begich was favored to win a second term as Alaska’s lone U.S. House member, although polls and prediction sites switched from predicting a comfortable victory to a close one as Election Day neared. However, numerous Republicans across the country lost congressional and state races they were favored in.

Hill, an independent who ran with support from the Alaska Democratic Party, has not stated which party he will caucus with if he is elected.

Governor: Kreiss-Tomkins gained bipartisan endorsements as Election Day neared

Alaska last elected a Democratic governor in 1998. But Kreiss-Tomkins, a former state legislator from Sitka, picked up endorsements from major Republican state figures during the final days of the election, while his three Republican challengers struggled with differences among themselves and supporters skeptical of the ranked choice voting process.

Ballot Measure 2: Support for ranked choice voting and campaign finance limits

Alaska voters narrowly approved ranked choice voting in 2020 and also narrowly approved keeping it in 2024. Early returns on a proposition repealing it this year show it losing by about 3%. Ballot Measure 2 would also repeal a regulation requiring third-party political donors to disclose the source of their funds.

• Contact Mark Sabbatini at editor@juneauindependent.com or (907) 957-2306.